Sports
Liverpool and Arsenal look incomplete, Fulham VAR drama, more
Another European soccer weekend is in the books and, once again, there are narratives aplenty to dissect. Liverpool defeated Arsenal in Sunday’s presumed “clash of title contenders,” though it’s clear based on the 90 minutes that both teams are far from the finished product. (Don’t worry: it’s the same for the rest of the Premier League after just three games, and with deadline day still ongoing.) VAR dominated the headlines after cancelling out a perfectly valid Fulham goal in the Cottagers’ 2-0 loss to Chelsea, while Manchester United also had the folks at Stockley Park to thank for their late, late 3-2 win over newly promoted Burnley.
Elsewhere, there are talking points galore as Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich and Napoli all secured three points to send title warnings, with Luis Enrique’s charges looking the most ominous. And don’t forget about Real Madrid either, as they picked up a third win from three games to take an early lead atop LaLiga — Xabi Alonso’s side still look a work-in-progress, but results are good right now.
It’s Monday before the international break kicks in, so what better time for Gab Marcotti’s musings?
Liverpool beat Arsenal, but neither team looks ready for the season (which explains their last-ditch deals)
Sunday’s clash of title favourites at Anfield turned into what tactics nerds like to call a “chess match,” but which others might describe as simply two sides unable to execute. Liverpool, defending champions playing at home, ended the first half with an xG of 0.09 and didn’t actually record their first shot on target until the hour mark. Arsenal, already without Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard (slowed by a shoulder injury, he came on in the second half), also lost defensive stalwart William Saliba after just five minutes and clearly opted for the risk-averse route.
Situations like these usually get resolved by one of two things: either a mistake (whether by the referee or an individual player), or a moment of brilliance. Dominik Szoboszlai‘s long-range free kick screamer that decided the match fits in the latter category.
– Szoboszlai, Liverpool make statement by beating Arsenal
– Emotional turmoil for Amorim, but a key win for Man United
– The VAR Review: Fulham fume while Man United get late penalty
Liverpool boss Arne Slot will be pleased with three wins in three games and already a two-point gap at the top of the table, but it’s pretty evident that what we’re seeing on the pitch isn’t the side he hopes to field later in the season. It can’t be. In each of their first three games they needed late goals to turn draws into wins, and while the schedule (they faced Bournemouth and Newcastle before this) has been tough, we haven’t seen what we saw from them last season — hence the pursuits of Alexander Isak and Marc Guéhi, though while more and better personnel makes you better, there is a fair amount to sort through tactically as well.
1:05
Hislop lauds Szoboszlai’s ‘moment of pure genius’ vs. Arsenal
Shaka Hislop reacts to Dominik Szoboszlai’s free kick in Liverpool’s 1-0 win against Arsenal in the Premier League.
Florian Wirtz in the No.10 hole remains a long-term project. Against Arsenal, it felt like he had to navigate deeper to get the ball and escape the Martín Zubimendi–Declan Rice gorgons in front of Arsenal’s back four, though it remains to be seen whether that’s the best use of his talents. Szoboszlai didn’t just score the winner; he also had more touches than any outfield player bar Virgil van Dijk, and he did a fair Trent Alexander-Arnold impression with some of his long-range passing. Is he keeping the right-back position warm for Jeremie Frimpong‘s return, or is this something we’ll see again on a regular basis, in which case Liverpool will have three right-back solutions (if you count Conor Bradley too) who are totally different from each other? Alexis Mac Allister and Mohamed Salah, for different reasons, have had slow starts to the season too.
As for Arsenal, manager Mikel Arteta insists they played to win, though on Monday morning he got plenty of stick for being too negative. Results change narratives and, had they escaped with a point (or nicked a goal to win it, which they could have done) we’d be talking about his tactical master-class. What’s pretty evident is that the drop from Odegaard, Saka and Saliba to Mikel Merino, Noni Madueke and Cristhian Mosquera is pretty sharp. Throw in the absence of Kai Havertz — probably a better fit in a game like this than Viktor Gyökeres — and you can give Arteta a pass for Sunday.
What’s clear is that he has pushed the club to go all-in this season, adding a ton of depth that simply wasn’t there last season. Arsenal’s reserve front four — Eberechi Eze, Madueke, Havertz and Ethan Nwaneri (or Merino) — is as good as all but a handful of team’s first-choice quartets. The pursuit of Piero Hincapié adds further options to the back line (and central midfield, too). Getting the newcomers to mesh and ensuring the drop-off is limited when your starters are unavailable will take time in his case, too. They have the defensive side of the game down pat — dialing up what they do on the attacking end, particularly when the understudies are in, will be a journey.
So if you were a little disappointed with Sunday, don’t fret. Both these teams are nowhere near their ceiling. They can get a lot better.
1:35
Will Gyökeres continue to struggle against the top Premier League defenders?
Shaka Hislop reacts to Viktor Gyökeres’ performance for Arsenal against Liverpool.
VAR farce shouldn’t distract from Chelsea’s poor performance
The headlines are all about video assistant referee Michael Salisbury, who disallowed Josh King‘s counter-attacking goal for an imaginary Rodrigo Muniz foul on Trevoh Chalobah. (HINT: When you have possession of the ball and in regaining your balance you step on the foot of the opponent behind you — and opponent you can’t see since you don’t have eyes on the back of your head — it’s not a foul.)
The Premier League‘s refereeing body, the PGMOL, admitted the error and took him off VAR duty for Sunday’s game between Liverpool and Arsenal. Admitting errors is a grown-up thing to do; it would be good if they also explained why referee Robert Jones didn’t have the guts to overrule VAR when he watched the incident on the screen.
Fulham were furious, and rightly so. Not only should the goal have stood, but the interminable review also caused the first half to run over an additional nine minutes, with Chelsea taking the lead at the very end of it. VAR also stepped in for Chelsea’s second goal, punishing a handball with a penalty, but that was more understandable.
1:28
Should there be an apology from the referees to Fulham?
Janusz Michaliik questions the referees performance after Fulham’s goal was controversially disallowed vs Chelsea.
However, all this referee/VAR talk shouldn’t distract from a poor Chelsea performance, especially in the first half. Until the final minute of first-half injury time, their xG stood at a paltry 0.11. Cole Palmer‘s absence — and Liam Delap‘s injury — alone don’t explain it. Blues head coach Enzo Maresca needs his leaders to step up, starting with Enzo Fernández. It’s one thing to beat up a horrible West Ham United like they did last week, quite another to deal with a well-drilled, organised side like Fulham.
Quick hits
10. PSG go next level at Toulouse: There are different ways to win 6-3. It’s still a three-goal margin of victory, but sometimes it can be a tight, exciting game with one side pulling ahead at the end. Not here. Paris Saint-Germain were 3-0 up inside of 15 minutes and 5-1 up before the hour mark. Game over. The rest is garbage time, which is when — after Luis Enrique duly made his substitutions — the home team pulled a couple goals back. PSG ended up with a whopping 76% possession and weirdly got outshot by Toulouse (14-13), but only because by that stage the game was over. João Neves took the headlines with a stunning hat trick (two of them overhead kicks), while Lucas Chevalier saved a penalty (two, actually, given the first one was retaken). A lot will have to go wrong this season for PSG to drop points in Ligue 1.
9. Zambo Anguissa’s buzzer-beater saves Napoli, but this year feels different: Sometimes you deliver a stinker, somehow manage to score and eke out a 1-0 win. And sometimes you need the final kick of the game to break the impasse when really, you deserved to score earlier. Thanks to André-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Napoli’s 1-0 win over Cagliari belongs to the latter category, unlike many of the 1-0 wins they got last season. Cagliari parked the proverbial bus, star signing Kevin De Bruyne was a notch below his best, and Napoli were a bit languid in their play — but the chances still came, albeit after the break. Antonio Conte, however, still has the tactical chops to give himself the edge, like he did when he sent on a genuine winger like Noa Lang. This feels like a team pacing itself, knowing it’s ready to reap what it sows. That wasn’t the sense last season, when they won the title.
1:22
Why are things not clicking for Real Madrid?
Ale Moreno looks at the reasons why Real Madrid are still struggling despite beating Mallorca 2-1 in LaLiga.
8. Real Madrid getting results, but still waiting on performances: The good news is Real Madrid are three for three, Barcelona are three points back and Atlético Madrid a whopping seven points back. On the flip side, Saturday’s 2-1 win over Mallorca underscored how this doesn’t yet feel like a Xabi Alonso side. There’s little value-add from the coach (which may be understandable, given it’s still very early in his tenure) and it’s still about talented individuals doing what talented individuals do. Consider Kylian Mbappé‘s disallowed goals (correct, but close) or, for that matter, Vinícius Júnior‘s strike that made it 2-1. This isn’t about patterns of play; it’s about having exceptional players. Which isn’t a bad thing… just that when great players have off days, you can get stuck. It feels as if Xabi is still holding auditions for his starting XI (and, in any case, he’ll have to re-write the script when Jude Bellingham returns). Don’t expect to see Xabi’s vision of Real Madrid to come together until the new year … which is why it’s good they’re getting results under their belts in the meantime.
7. With horrible finishing and defensive lapses, Bayern nearly chuck Bavarian Derby away: I’ll start with Luis Díaz, because I’m a huge fan. He did score in Bayern Munich‘s nervy 3-2 win at FC Augsburg, but he also missed a couple of sitters, including an early “miss of the season” contender after just 20 seconds. He wasn’t the only culprit, though, as Bayern somehow contrived to put together an xG of 4.24 while scoring just three times. At the other end, there were more defensive mishaps than you’d expect (Sacha Boey, again), suggesting simply dropping Jonathan Tah into the back four isn’t going to fix the defence. It’s not what Bayern fans want to see, coming after the shaky midweek performance against third-flight Wehen Wiesbaden. The club have been quite open about their difficulties in the transfer window this summer, but these sorts of flaws can generally be attributed to focus and concentration (after all, they’re still creating the chances). That’s something Die Roten coach Vincent Kompany needs to sort out.
6. Dusan Vlahovic does it again for Juventus … so much for those who wanted him gone: I don’t want to say “I told you so” but … OK, sample size is tiny (two goals in two games) but the big man staying is, all told, a blessing in disguise. He seems fine with his role off the bench and he’ll be a free agent at the end of the season: what’s not to like? With the leverage he had, a move was always going to be unlikely and with Lois Openda now reportedly on his way — a better complement in Igor Tudor’s system than Randal Kolo Muani — Juve have viable and productive front four options when you add in Kenan Yildiz, Jonathan David and Chico Conceicao. Genoa away are a prickly opponent, and Juve don’t necessarily have the fluidity they need yet. Things should get better once the window closes and there is a bit more clarity over the bloated squad as more players exit.
1:26
Hislop: Man United’s only job was to beat Burnley
Shaka Hislop tries to look at the positives for Man United after their 3-2 win vs. Burnley in the Premier League.
5. VAR rescued Man United, but Ruben Amorim is right to not call it a “turning point:” Why should he? Manchester United have had more turning points turn into false dawns than you can shake a stick at. The winner came all the way in the seventh minute of injury time against Burnley — with Bruno Fernandes making it 3-2 from the spot thanks to VAR — but the result was deserved and the decision was correct (if you’re going to pull a jersey, be sure to let go well before your opponent enters the penalty area). You can highlight the negatives — the sheer luck on the Josh Cullen own-goal, goalkeeper Altay Bayindir screwing up (again), Matheus Cunha coming off injured, Ruben Amorim refusing to look on as Bruno took the penalty (again), the general chaotic nerviness after Burnley made it 2-2 — but they don’t change the fact that United created plenty of chances. Managing games clearly is not (yet?) their forte, but given how fragile Manchester United are mentally and how prone to psychodrama, at least they offered a reaction to the League Cup embarrassment in front of their own fans. Lest we forget, this team lost nine of 19 league games at Old Trafford last season.
2:21
Were Bayer Leverkusen right to have sacked k Erik ten Hag?
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens debate if Bayer Leverkusen were right to sack Erik ten Hag after just 60 days.
4. Erik Ten Hag sacked by Bayer Leverkusen after 62 days, but he can’t be the only one responsible: OK, so it’s open season on the former Manchester United boss. Appointed July 1, dismissed September 1. Nice one, Erik. It happened after another embarrassing outing: leading 3-1 against Werder Bremen, who are down to ten men with 26 minutes to go, and Bayer Leverkusen contrive to draw 3-3. Several things seem pretty clear here. Ten Hag wasn’t fired for the first two Bundesliga outings, however insipid. Clearly, some key relationships broke down very quickly, because it’s never a good look for a club to sack a guy two games into his tenure. He was likely never a good fit for a club needing to rebuild on a budget after losing half its starting XI, but that means whoever hired him has to take accountability, too.
3. Manchester City‘s collapse at Brighton is more mental than technical: Two defeats on the bounce for Pep Guardiola’s City used to be noteworthy … until last season. But this is supposed to be the rebuilding year, which makes the collapse away to Brighton all the more noteworthy. Things were fine for an hour, right up until Oscar Bobb missed the chance to make it 2-0 — and then, the bottom fell out. Matheus Nunes gave up a foolish penalty, the back four went all over the place for Brajan Gruda’s winner and they ended up conceding 2.19 xG in the last half-hour while taking just three shots, all of them off target. Had it not been for James Trafford’s standout performance, it was Brighton who could have four or even five and again, that has to be on the manager because for most of the game, City were significantly better and, indeed, Erling Haaland could have had a first half hat-trick. Guardiola was dismissive, saying that compared to last season his team is “in a good moment.” I’m more on board with the words of Rodri, who blamed lack of concentration, children’s mistakes and admitted they haven’t been at the level they should be at “for a long, long time.” Guardiola needs to take this break to think things through and sort things out. He should not compare this to last year’s aberration.
2. Atletico Madrid still winless after (lucky) draw at Alaves: Lucky because Giuliano Simeone’s goal shouldn’t have stood. The handball was accidental, but it led directly to him being able to shoot on goal (which is why the VAR was replaced). So it really should be one point from three games, eight behind Real Madrid. It’s “El Cholo” Simeone’s worst-ever start at Atletico and rarely, in his 13 years in charge, have they looked this confused. On paper, this team should be more attacking than last season’s iteration, but they take fewer shots and have lower expected goals per shot. Antoine Griezmann started slowly, Alexander Sorloth still hasn’t found the right chemistry with Julián Álvarez, Koke isn’t getting any younger and the entire new flank with Thiago Almada and Matteo Ruggeri (who was dropped for a center-back like Dávid Hancko, maybe the only bright spot among the new signings) isn’t working. Teething problems? Sure. And given his track record, you wouldn’t bet against Simeone figuring things out. But right now, it’s hard to see how these bits fit together.
1:15
Michaliik: This is a shocking loss for Spurs
Janusz Michaliik rues Tottenham’s first loss of the season at home to Bournemouth as he believes it was a missed opportunity for Spurs.
1. Frank hails Spurs’ “heart” after Bournemouth humiliation: And, make no mistake about it, it was a humiliation. Tottenham Hotspur boss Thomas Frank got plenty of praise for some of the early performances (including the 2-0 win at Manchester City) but all of that disappeared against AFC Bournemouth. Sure, they went down to a deflected goal early, but what happened next was hard to stomach. Their first shot on goal came in minute 55 and their first (and only) shot on target in minute 68. Cherries head coach Andoni Iraola is a phenomenal tactician and Bournemouth are a tough out, but Spurs’ inability to create chances was evident. Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison being injured doesn’t help, although newly signed Xavi Simons should brighten things up.
It’s interesting to note that Frank is opting for the carrot, instead of the stick after this horrid performance. He praised his teams “heart” and “effort” while conceding his attacking players “did not hit a high level.” “I don’t want to say it’s OK,” he said. “But it’s natural.” Different coach, different motivational techniques I guess…
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Seth Walder
If you don’t want spoilers for the 2025 NFL season, look away.
I typically write about the NFL in terms of probabilities — the chance the Eagles repeat as Super Bowl champions, the probability the Bengals get back to the playoffs, the odds the Browns are actually the best team in football (OK, maybe not that one).
But every so often, we need to inject certainty into a forecast. After all, the upcoming NFL season will play out only one way. So why not simulate the season one time and see what happens?
That’s what we’re doing here. We’re detailing the story of a single simulation from ESPN’s Football Power Index, which normally uses 10,000 simulations to build its projections. To be clear, this is not my prediction or ESPN Analytics’ prediction of how this season will unfold. (Vikings fans still in my mentions about Minnesota’s 4-13 record in last year’s simulation — please read that sentence.) This is simply simulation No. 4,091 — what definitely, absolutely, certainly could happen in 2025. Let’s play it out.
See FPI’s full projections for the 2025 season
Both Super Bowl LIX teams miss playoffs
Eleven months after the Chiefs and Eagles squared off in Super Bowl LIX, both teams cleaned out their lockers following Week 18. Neither managed to make it back to the playoffs, easily the shocker of the 2025 campaign in this simulation.
The Eagles were actually done before the final week. Thought to be infallible heading into the season, the Eagles were 5-4 after Week 10 — a game behind the Cowboys but still seemingly in control of their postseason destiny. But that turned into a 6-8 record, leaving Philadelphia in pure panic mode. In the end, the Eagles couldn’t make up the gap, falling short in the NFC East and wild-card battle.
The Chiefs’ collapse was much more startling. Kansas City controlled its destiny in the AFC West after beating the Broncos on Christmas Day to improve to 9-7. It needed to only to beat the Raiders to secure its 11th straight playoff spot. But Patrick Mahomes‘ clutch gene was nowhere to be found as the Chiefs fell 28-19, allowing the Broncos — who won their Week 18 game — to win the division on a tiebreaker. No wild-card bid for the Chiefs either.
The two defending conference champions weren’t the only surprising teams to miss the playoffs in 2025. The Commanders, 49ers and Packers all missed the postseason, too.
Aaron Rodgers experiment fails, Mike Tomlin has first losing record
The Steelers’ bid for the aging superstar quarterback was always a long shot upside play. Ultimately, the poor play that started in Green Bay in 2022 and continued in New York in 2024 couldn’t be reversed.
Things started OK. Rodgers got his revenge on the Jets in Week 1, and a 3-2 start prompted optimism. But a five-game losing streak hit, with losses to the Bengals, Packers, Colts, Chargers and Bengals again. At that point, it was clear that the Steelers’ season — and Rodgers’ career — was over.
Broncos steal AFC West crown
The AFC West wasn’t so tough after all. Despite optimism from all four teams entering the season, no one separated from the pack or put up a gaudy record. But someone had to prevail.
Denver became the first team in a decade to dethrone the Chiefs from their AFC West crown. Tied with the Chargers at 8-8 entering Week 18, the Broncos secured the division title with an 18-15 win over Justin Herbert, Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers.
The win was indicative of the Broncos’ strengths, as the offense provided just enough help for a smothering defense. Denver finished the season ranked first in defensive EPA per play.
Cowboys win surprise NFC East title
Like in the AFC West, it wasn’t that another team took the division crown from the Eagles as much as Philadelphia being sucked into the division’s overall mediocrity. And when the Eagles stumbled, Dallas took advantage.
Maybe we shouldn’t be that surprised that the Cowboys made the playoffs (even if winning the division seemed unlikely). Though the preseason chatter was all about Micah Parsons and his eventual trade, the remaining foundation of this team still included Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Considering Prescott finished second in QBR in 2023, Dallas was always capable of having a quality offense, and it was good enough in this case to make up for missing Parsons. Young pass rushers Donovan Ezeiruaku and Sam Williams stepping up helped, too.
In the end, the Cowboys won the division with a 9-8 record, though they fizzled again in the postseason with a wild-card loss.
Colts win AFC South; Titans earn wild card
Even in a season when the Chiefs and Eagles missed the playoffs, what happened in the AFC South turned heads. Somehow, Colts coach Shane Steichen unlocked the 2022 version of Daniel Jones, leaning on the legs of the former Giants quarterback while Lou Anarumo and the new-look secondary turned around the defense. The result was a 10-7 record and playoff berth.
But the real AFC South story was the red-hot start of Cam Ward and the Titans. Tennessee began the season 9-3 as Ward took the league by storm. He was the talk of the NFL through 13 weeks and had a lock on the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. But the Titans proceeded to rattle off a five-game losing streak as the league caught up to the rookie QB, and Tennessee limped into the playoffs with a 9-8 record.
While the Colts stole the division from the Titans, Tennessee was able to turn the tables in the wild-card round. The result? A 34-13 blowout in Tennessee’s favor at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Ravens edge Bengals for AFC North title
With the Browns and Steelers nonfactors, it was clear by midseason that the AFC North would come down to Baltimore and Cincinnati. The race peaked in Week 15, when the two teams — then tied at 7-6 — squared off for their second meeting.
It was a classic in Baltimore. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson traded big throws against seemingly helpless defenses — the quarterbacks combined for an outrageous eight touchdown passes. But the Ravens finally got the stop they needed, and rookie Tyler Loop finished off the Bengals with a 43-yard field goal as time expired to give the Ravens a 41-38 victory. The win put Baltimore up a game in the standings and also gave it a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Bengals. It was needed, as the Ravens and Bengals both finished 10-7.
The lack of home-field advantage proved costly for the Bengals, who lost a wild-card heartbreaker in Denver 35-32. The Ravens took advantage of playing at home, dispatching the Dolphins 34-17 in the wild-card round and the Broncos 24-22 in the divisional round to go to the AFC Championship Game.
With all the surprise NFC playoff misses, spots were available. And the Cardinals were one of the upstarts that took advantage. Arizona had a good, but not great, 9-8 season in which quarterback Kyler Murray played quite well, wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. took a small step forward and the defense was mediocre. That was enough for a wild-card berth, and the Cardinals made some postseason noise. Arizona routed the NFC South champion Falcons 35-14. Playoff Josh Sweat sacked Michael Penix Jr. multiple times, while Murray threw two touchdown passes to Zay Jones. But the Cardinals didn’t carry that momentum into their divisional round matchup with the Vikings, losing 28-22 when their attempted game-winning drive stalled out in the final minute. Sometimes preseason expectations hold. FPI predicted the Saints to be the worst team in football, and they were just that. The easy schedule worked in their favor, too. New Orleans was tied with the Jets and Browns for the worst record at 5-12, but it earned the No. 1 pick on the schedule-strength tiebreaker. Before the season, Archie Manning predicted that his grandson Arch Manning would remain with Texas for the 2026 season. But when the Saints — Archie’s former team — earned the first overall pick, speculation about the youngest Manning speeding up his NFL timetable began to grow. For much of the season, the Buccaneers looked like a mild disappointment, as quarterback Baker Mayfield couldn’t quite match his 2024 success with new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. Entering Week 18, Tampa Bay sat at 8-8 on the outside looking in at the playoffs — a game out of the NFC South and wild-card berths. The Bucs needed that final week to break their way, and it did. The division was out of reach once the Falcons beat the Saints, but the Buccaneers kept their playoff hopes alive with a 20-15 victory over the Panthers. They got the help they needed, with the 49ers losing to the Seahawks 24-17 and the Bears falling to the Lions 38-9. That allowed Tampa Bay to grab the last wild-card spot with a 9-8 record. The Bucs entered the playoffs with low expectations but shocked No. 2-seeded Detroit 27-24 in the wild-card round, keyed by a Yaya Diaby sack and a deflection of a Jared Goff pass that was intercepted. Tampa Bay then surprised the top-seeded Rams 27-22 in the divisional round thanks to a clinical Mayfield performance. Todd Bowles’ defense got the job done in the NFC Championship Game, confusing J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings and winning 28-13. Emeka Egbuka and Bucky Irving had big days, and the Bucs were Super Bowl bound — where they met the Bills. In a wild NFC playoffs, five of six road teams won their matchups. Here’s how the overall postseason played out leading into the Super Bowl: Wild-card round (AFC) No. 2 Ravens def. No. 7 Dolphins 34-17 (AFC) No. 6 Titans def. No. 3 Colts 34-13 (AFC) No. 4 Broncos def. No. 5 Bengals 35-32 (NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 2 Lions 27-24 (NFC) No. 6 Cardinals def. No. 3 Falcons 35-14 (NFC) No. 5 Vikings def. No. 4 Cowboys 10-9 Divisional round (AFC) No. 1 Bills def. No. 6 Titans 28-14 (AFC) No. 2 Ravens def. No. 4 Broncos 24-22 (NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 1 Rams 27-22 (NFC) No. 5 Vikings def. No. 6 Cardinals 28-22 Conference championships (AFC) No. 1 Bills def. No. 2 Ravens 24-20 (NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 5 Vikings 28-13 Bills Mafia, rejoice. Buffalo really did it. After coming up short four times in a row in the early 1990s and then knocking on the door in recent years with Josh Allen, the Bills finally burst through with a statement win. Buffalo was the best team in the regular season, winning 13 games to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Allen won his second straight MVP award — no controversy this time — and the Lombardi Trophy was considered Buffalo’s to lose. The Bills’ No. 1 seed earned them a divisional round matchup against a plucky Titans team that wasn’t ready for the moment. The Bills won 28-14. The real test came in the AFC Championship Game — the last game ever in Highmark Stadium. With snow flurries falling in true Buffalo fashion, the Bills hosted their fiercest challenger, the Ravens. Allen put on a top-tier performance, recording a 91 QBR and throwing a go-ahead fourth-quarter touchdown pass to tight end Dalton Kincaid. Allen and the Bills outdueled Jackson and the Ravens 24-20 to advance to Super Bowl LX. The betting market pegged the Bills as 7.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers, which was more than enough. The Bills opened with a two-score lead in the first eight minutes on a 56-yard touchdown run by James Cook. It didn’t get closer, so Allen hardly needed to make big plays. Cook took home Super Bowl LX MVP with his three touchdowns, and the Bills were finally victorious, trouncing Tampa Bay 55-23. ESPN senior sports analytics engineer Hank Gargiulo contributed to this article.
Cardinals win a playoff game
Saints get first overall pick, prompting Arch watch
No. 7 seed Buccaneers go on unlikely Super Bowl run
Bills win Super Bowl LX
The 2025 NFL season kicks off Thursday night, when the reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles host the Cowboys (8:20 ET, NBC).
Week 1 continues Friday night in Brazil, when the Chiefs face the Chargers in São Paulo (8 ET, YouTube), before Sunday’s slate of 13 games, including the Bills hosting the Ravens on “Sunday Night Football” (8:20 ET, NBC). Opening week wraps up with “Monday Night Football,” as the Vikings visit the Bears (8:20 ET, ESPN and ABC).
To welcome back football, NFL Nation reporters identified strengths and concerns for all 32 teams. Analyst Matt Bowen has a tip for winning your fantasy league; analytics writer Seth Walder makes 32 bold predictions; and ESPN Research provides a QB stat to know for every team heading into the season. In addition, you’ll find the chances for every team to win its division and make the playoffs, projected win totals and strength of schedule. Plus, depth charts, schedules and rosters for every team.
This is everything you need to know for the start of the season, which will conclude Feb. 8 at Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) ranked every team from 1 to 32 based on how it projects the season to play out. The Baltimore Ravens start us off at No. 1:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SEA
SF | TB | TEN | WSH
Chances to make the playoffs: 78.6%
Chances to win division: 52.6%
Projected wins: 10.4
Strength of schedule: Ninth hardest
2024 record: 12-5
Biggest strength: Lamar Jackson. The two-time NFL Most Valuable Player is the most explosive playmaker in the league. Last season, he was as dangerous with his arm as his legs, leading the NFL in yards per pass attempt (8.8) and yards per carry (6.6). With Jackson as its starting quarterback, Baltimore has a 70-24 record (.745) and has its sights set on a Super Bowl title. When Jackson has been sidelined over the past six seasons, the Ravens have gone 4-9 (.308). — Jamison Hensley
Biggest concern: Tyler Loop. This has the makings of the most complete team in Jackson’s eight-year run. The biggest change is going from Justin Tucker, the most accurate kicker in NFL history, to Loop, a rookie sixth-round pick. According to Pro Football Reference’s database, of the 128 place-kickers in NFL history who have attempted 20 or more kicks as a rookie, 19 have hit or exceeded an 85% conversion rate. — Hensley
QB stat to know: Jackson enters 2025 looking to build on a career season, setting career-best marks in passing TDs (41) and passing yards (4,172). He can become the first quarterback since Peyton Manning (2003-05) to be named first-team All-Pro in three straight seasons. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: WR Zay Flowers. A high-floor target due to his deployment in the Ravens’ offense, Flowers can win as a route runner or produce as a horizonal stretch option on schemed touches. Flowers averaged 12.2 points per game in 2024, and he had 11 games with double-digit production. With Flowers expected to see another 100 targets this season, he provides solid value at his current ADP. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Running back Keaton Mitchell will have at least four games with 20-plus fantasy points. This is more or less me running back (pun intended) my bold prediction from a year ago, when I was also bullish on Mitchell. Perhaps I was a year too early then. Even with the extra time passed, I have a hard time forgetting Mitchell’s 201 rush yards over expectation on 47 carries in 2023, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 76.1%
Chances to win division: 56.0%
Projected wins: 10.3
Strength of schedule: Fourth hardest
2024 record: 14-3
Biggest strength: Exceptional run game. Offensive Player of the Year Saquon Barkley became the all-time leading rusher for a single season (including playoffs) in 2024 while powering the Eagles to their second Super Bowl title. He operates behind one of the best offensive lines in football, which is returning four of five starters (right guard Mekhi Becton signed with the Chargers this offseason and has been replaced by Tyler Steen). Couple that ground attack with receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts, and you have an offense with a very high ceiling. — Tim McManus
Biggest concern: Replacements in the secondary. The Eagles parted with safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and cornerback Darius Slay this offseason and were unable to clearly identify their replacements this summer. Veteran Adoree’ Jackson seems to have gained an edge on Kelee Ringo but certainly didn’t run away with the job. Perhaps Jakorian Bennett, recently acquired from the Raiders, or rookie Mac McWilliams will claim the spot opposite Quinyon Mitchell at some point. Rookie safety Andrew Mukuba flashed brightly in his preseason debut against the Browns but has also been hampered by injuries, opening the door for third-year player Sydney Brown to try to secure the job, at least temporarily. — McManus
QB stat to know: To fill the role of offensive coordinator after Kellen Moore became the Saints head coach, the Eagles promoted Kevin Patullo, who served as the team’s pass game coordinator each of the past four seasons. Over that span, Hurts ranked fourth in QBR when using motion, behind only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Brock Purdy. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: Smith. The wide receiver has finished each of the past three seasons as a top-20 WR in PPR scoring. Yes, the offense in Philly is run-heavy with Barkley, and Smith will remain the No. 2 receiver opposite Brown. However, Smith averaged 7.1 targets per game in 2024 while averaging 14.4 PPG, including four games with 22 or more points. He is a fantasy WR3 in an offense that will move the ball and produce touchdowns. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Defensive tackle Moro Ojomo — who has zero career sacks — will record at least 5.0 sacks and finish in the top 10 in pass rush win rate. We saw the success Milton Williams had playing next to Jalen Carter, and there are already positive signs for Ojomo: He posted a 13% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle last season, which would have ranked seventh at the position had he played enough to qualify. — Walder
Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on PHI
Chances to make the playoffs: 74.8%
Chances to win division: 46.8%
Projected wins: 10.3
Strength of schedule: 11th hardest (tie)
2024 record: 15-2
Biggest strength: The Chiefs have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, which is still the best coach-quarterback combination in the league. Mahomes was excellent in camp and has worked to improve his deep-ball passing. Reid and Mahomes are capable of adjusting during a game or the middle of the season to always give the Chiefs a chance to win. — Nate Taylor
Biggest concern: The Chiefs plan to protect the blind side of Mahomes with a rookie and a second-year player switching to a new position. Josh Simmons, the first-round pick, hasn’t played a game since October, when he sustained a season-ending torn patella in his last year at Ohio State. Kingsley Suamataia is the new left guard and has played one NFL game at the position. How Simmons and Suamataia perform this season will determine much of the Chiefs’ success on offense. — Taylor
QB stat to know: If Mahomes reaches the AFC Championship Game for an eighth consecutive season, he would match Tom Brady (2011-18) for the longest streak of conference championship starts since the 1970 merger. — ESPN Research
1:09
Why Patrick Mahomes remains a solid fantasy option
Field Yates explains why he has Patrick Mahomes ranked as the No. 8 fantasy QB entering the season.
How to win your fantasy league: RB Isiah Pacheco. A Week 2 fibula fracture derailed Pacheco’s 2024 season, and the injury impacted his numbers when he returned in Weeks 13-18 (5.0 PPG). But if we go back to 2023, Pacheco averaged 15.3 fantasy PPG, scoring nine touchdowns and catching 44 passes. So, bet on a healthy Pacheco — and his urgent running style — to fill that RB2/flex slot in the lineup. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: The Chiefs will have at least 12 plays that go for 40-plus yards in the regular season. Doesn’t sound so bold, does it? But last season, Kansas City recorded four such plays. I’m betting the Chiefs will make a concerted effort to bring the explosive plays back in 2025, particularly via vertical shots to WR Xavier Worthy. — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 65.6%
Chances to win division: 38.4%
Projected wins: 9.7
Strength of schedule: Second hardest (tie)
2024 record: 15-2
Biggest strength: Ground attack. Running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery — aka “Sonic & Knuckles” — could be featured backs for nearly any team in the NFL but have no problems splitting carries in Detroit. New running backs coach Tashard Choice, who coached Gibbs at Georgia Tech, is looking to bring the best out of them. Gibbs and Montgomery have each recorded at least 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10 scrimmage touchdowns in each of the past two seasons, becoming the first running back tandem in NFL history to have two such seasons (at all, not just consecutively), according to ESPN Research. — Eric Woodyard
Biggest concern: Offensive line. After a 15-win season in 2024, Detroit continues to navigate through two key losses on the O-line. The Lions lost four-time Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow to retirement and veteran guard Kevin Zeitler, who signed with the Tennessee Titans this offseason. One of the biggest concerns is whether the offensive production will continue to be among the league’s elite as veteran Graham Glasgow is switching from guard to center and rookie guard Tate Ratledge probably will assume a starting role. — Woodyard
QB stat to know: Though Jared Goff ranks second in the NFL in QBR when he has a clean pocket, he ranks 23rd when he’s under pressure. Goff had the second-largest QBR decline in the league in 2024 when he was pressured compared with when he had a clean pocket, ahead of only Daniel Jones. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: WR Jameson Williams. A dynamic threat with home run skills, Williams had a vertical route rate of 41.1%, while running crossers (or overs) at a rate of 13.3%. And that’s how he can create big plays for this Lions offense. Williams had 16 receptions of 20 or more yards last season, and he averaged 14.4 PPG, buoyed by four games of 22 or more points. With a bump in volume, Williams could jump into the WR2 ranks this season. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Aidan Hutchinson will record at least 100 pass rush wins, something that has happened only twice since the metric was created in 2017 (Micah Parsons in 2023 and Aaron Donald in 2018). I’m getting sucked into a small sample size and ignoring that he’s coming off a season-ending broken leg, but Hutchinson’s 35% pass rush win rate in the five games he played last season put him on pace for the second-highest PRWR in the metric’s history (he also had 7.5 sacks). I think he could be excellent again in 2025. — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 81.1%
Chances to win division: 66.5%
Projected wins: 10.6
Strength of schedule: Ninth easiest (tie)
2024 record: 13-4
Biggest strength: Josh Allen. The reigning MVP reinforced last year just how much he is capable of, even without a clear No. 1 receiver, as he broke a variety of franchise and league records. Allen has not missed a game since his rookie season and has accounted for at least 40 touchdowns (passing or rushing) in five straight seasons, the longest streak in NFL history. No other player has done so in four straight seasons. — Alaina Getzenberg
Biggest concern: Will the changes to the defense be enough? The Bills heavily invested in the defensive line, through the draft and free agency, and the health of DE Joey Bosa and some of the young players’ ability to develop will be key. There are also some real unknowns when it comes to the secondary, including the health of CBs Tre’Davious White and Maxwell Hairston. — Getzenberg
QB stat to know: Allen became the franchise’s first NFL MVP since RB Thurman Thomas in 1991 and was rewarded with a six-year extension in March. The deal includes $250 million guaranteed, the largest guaranteed total in a single contract. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: WR Khalil Shakir. He caught 73 passes in 2024 and averaged 12.7 PPG. While he is not a high-volume target in the low red zone (three end zone targets in 2024), the Bills’ route tree maximizes his skill set after the catch. Savvy and tough in space, Shakir averaged 7.9 YAC last season, and he posted 11 games with double-digit production. You can win with that at the WR3 spot in your lineup. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: TE Dalton Kincaid will record at least 900 receiving yards. This is more of a feeling than anything else, but sometimes it takes tight ends a few seasons to really settle in and make an impact. Kincaid was a highly touted prospect who flashed his potential in a 73-reception, 673-yard rookie season in 2023. Plus, there are still questions about other playmakers in Buffalo, so he ought to get his fair share of targets. — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 56.4%
Chances to win division: 29.0%
Projected wins: 9.2
Strength of schedule: Fifth hardest (tie)
2024 record: 11-6
Biggest strength: Experience on offense — finally. That might sound counterintuitive given that this has been the youngest team in the NFL the past two seasons — and likely will have one of the youngest rosters again this year — but the core of this group, including Jordan Love and most of his pass catchers — have grown together. GM Brian Gutekunst’s idea was for the quarterback and his young skill-position players to have time to build chemistry together. Along the way, they picked up some valuable postseason scars that could benefit them in the playoffs the next time around. — Rob Demovsky
Biggest concern: A few days ago, this would’ve been pass rusher, but then Micah Parsons entered the picture. There are still potential issues on defense, especially on the back end. They signed cornerback Nate Hobbs in free agency, and it will be him and Keisean Nixon as the base corners. Neither has ever been a true CB1, and the Packers moved on from theirs when they cut Jaire Alexander in June. Hobbs is recovering from early-August knee surgery. Next up on the depth chart are a former seventh-round pick (Carrington Valentine), a player who spent his first two seasons with the Packers as a receiver and moved to cornerback in June (Bo Melton) and a former practice squad member whose only NFL game experience is seven special teams plays last season (Kamal Hadden). — Demovsky
QB stat to know: Since taking over as the starter in 2023, Love ranks in the top seven among 33 qualified quarterbacks in passing touchdowns, yards per dropback and QBR. However, Love ranks 26th among that group in both completion percentage and interceptions. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: WR Matthew Golden. With his 4.29 speed and ball-tracking ability, the rookie first-rounder brings a playmaking skill set to coach Matt LaFleur’s offense. Last season at Texas, Golden led the country with 23 receptions of 20 or more yards, plus he can work the underneath levels of the route tree from multiple alignments. With Christian Watson still recovering from a knee injury, Golden can emerge quickly as a target for Love. Golden projects as an upside WR3. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper will be a first- or second-team All-Pro. Cooper’s numbers were fantastic in a semi-small sample as a rookie last season. His 46% run stop win rate would have led all linebackers, his 0.6 yards per coverage snap allowed was better than average, and he recorded 3.5 sacks. — Walder
Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on GB
Chances to make the playoffs: 56.8%
Chances to win division: 26.5%
Projected wins: 9.2
Strength of schedule: 14th hardest
2024 record: 9-8
Biggest strength: The receiving corps. When a team shells out $276 million on two wide receivers, it had better be a strength. But it’s not just Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins spearheading that group. Andrei Iosivas is a strong No. 3. And the others among that group — Charlie Jones, Jermaine Burton, Mitchell Tinsley — have flashed consistently during training camp and the preseason. — Ben Baby
Biggest concern: Right guard. It’s never a great sign when a starting job isn’t secured by the end of training camp, and Cincinnati still doesn’t have a confirmed starter at right guard. Whether it’s Lucas Patrick or Cody Ford, the starter will need to do his part to keep Joe Burrow upright. Cincinnati ranked last in pass block win rate last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Baby
QB stat to know: Despite Burrow ranking third in the league in QBR (74.7) and having an MVP-caliber season, the Bengals missed the postseason. That is the highest QBR by a quarterback (minimum 10 starts) who didn’t make the playoffs since the metric was introduced in 2006. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: Higgins. In 12 games played last season, Higgins had 10 touchdown receptions and averaged 18.2 PPG. Working opposite Chase in one of the league’s most pass-heavy systems and with Burrow at quarterback, Higgins brings alignments versatility and three-level production in the route tree. He is a high-end WR2 who can post WR1 weeks. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: The Bengals will miss the playoffs — again. I worry about how much Cincinnati relies on four players — Burrow, Chase, Higgins and edge rusher Trey Hendrickson — and fell short with all of them last season. Maybe the Bengals will get some positive defensive regression, but are we sure they’ll match their offensive output from 2024, when Burrow played the best ball of his career? The offensive line is still shaky, too. — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 54.3%
Chances to win division: 28.7%
Projected wins: 9.1
Strength of schedule: Eighth hardest
2024 record: 12-5
Biggest strength: Jayden Daniels. One opposing coach said in the offseason that Daniels “makes a lot of wrongs right” because of his explosive ability with his arm (3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns) and legs (891 yards, six touchdowns). He infuses confidence, making teammates believe they can win any game. Multiple receivers had their best seasons playing with him last season, including Terry McLaurin, who had a career-high 13 touchdown receptions. Tight end Zach Ertz called Daniels the leader of the team and said, “It’s crazy to think he’s only in his second year.” — John Keim
Biggest concern: Offensive chemistry — especially early in the season. The defense, which faces its own questions about how improved it is, looked strong this summer, and though Daniels is the strength, the first-team offense hasn’t worked much together. Two of the top three receivers — McLaurin (recently ended his hold-in) and Noah Brown (knee) — missed all or most of camp. Starting left guard Brandon Coleman missed three weeks, while starting right guard Sam Cosmi is recovering from a torn ACL and his return date remains uncertain. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury called the group “a work in progress.” — Keim
QB stat to know: Daniels excelled under pressure last season — specifically when blitzed — finishing with a 92 QBR versus the blitz in 2024 (including playoffs). That ranked first out of 93 QBs who have had 200-plus dropbacks against a blitz since 2006. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt. With the team trading away Brian Robinson Jr., there is an opportunity here for Croskey-Merritt to establish a role in a backfield share with Austin Ekeler. Croskey-Merritt has flashed during the preseason with his short-area acceleration and decisive running style. With the potential for flex upside in the lineup, I’d take a chance on the rookie in the later rounds. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: The Commanders will finish below .500. Sure, they could continue their ascent. But there are a lot of ways this season could go sideways for the Commanders. The aging defense with a lack of pass rush could fail them, injury or decline could strike McLaurin (their receiving group is weak behind him), or Daniels’ early-down numbers from a season ago (merely average!) could be a better indication of who he is going forward. — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 55.9%
Chances to win division: 24.3%
Projected wins: 9.2
Strength of schedule: 11th hardest (tie)
2024 record: 11-6
Biggest strength: Safety. The Chargers have three starting-caliber safeties in Derwin James Jr., Alohi Gilman and Elijah Molden. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter likes to keep the three on the field as much as possible. Last season, James played his most snaps at the nickel cornerback position, sparking his return to All-Pro status after a down year in 2023. — Kris Rhim
Biggest concern: Offensive line. The Chargers’ interior line was somewhat of this team’s Achilles heel last season, largely responsible for L.A. not having a dominant rushing offense. Now the Chargers will be without Pro Bowl left tackle Rashawn Slater and are starting the same center (Bradley Bozeman) and left guard (Zion Johnson) pairing from last season. The one positive for L.A. was signing right guard Mekhi Becton, who should be a significant upgrade on the interior at that spot. — Rhim
QB stat to know: Justin Herbert‘s 21,093 passing yards are the most through five seasons in NFL history — but of the 14 active quarterbacks with 20,000-plus passing yards, he is one of three who does not have a playoff win as a starter (Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston). — ESPN Research
0:43
Dopp: Puka Nacua is a clear-cut fantasy WR1
Daniel Dopp explains why Puka Nacua will pick up where he left off last year as a solid fantasy WR1.
How to win your fantasy league: RB Omarion Hampton. He delivers body punches at 6-foot, 221 pounds, and he can get rolling on a downhill track. The lower-body power is there to run through contact and push the pile, and he can cut to daylight when the walls start to close. A capable receiver who produced big plays on screens and swings at North Carolina, Hampton can post RB2 numbers this season as the lead runner in the Chargers offense. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Joe Alt will win Protector of the Year. He is moving into a more high-profile role at left tackle in the wake of Slater’s injury, and he’s coming off a rookie season in which he put up pretty incredible numbers. Alt ranked fourth in pass block win rate (94%) and 15th in run block win rate (78%) among tackles. — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 65.2%
Chances to win division: 39.2%
Projected wins: 9.8
Strength of schedule: Easiest
2024 record: 6-11
Biggest strength: Offensive continuity. Though the Niners have had plenty of changes on the roster, their projected top 11 started at least two games each in 2024 and averaged a total of 11.5 starts last season when San Francisco was fourth in the league in yards per game. Injuries, especially at receiver, bring questions, but the 49ers have a group with experience in coach Kyle Shanahan’s system to again be an offense that, if it can take a step forward in the red zone (57.1%, 14th in 2024), should improve upon its 22.1 points per game from 2024, which also ranked 14th. — Nick Wagoner
Biggest concern: A lack of experience and depth on defense. Coordinator Robert Saleh has building blocks in DE Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner and CB Deommodore Lenoir, but the rest of the defense is essentially one big question mark. The Niners could end up starting as many as six rookies relatively early in the season on a defense that finished 2024 ranked 29th in points allowed per game (25.6). And if injuries strike again? Well, the Niners have little proven depth behind an already thin group, especially in the secondary. — Wagoner
QB stat to know: Since Brock Purdy took over as the full-time starter in Week 14 of the 2022 season, he ranks in the top five in passing yards and QBR, and he leads all quarterbacks in yards per attempt. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: WR Ricky Pearsall. He scored 17 points or more in three of his seven games played as a rookie. In Weeks 17 and 18, he had 14 receptions and averaged 23.8 fantasy points. A detailed route runner who can provide a vertical push in one-on-one matchups, Pearsall will also get opportunities on in-breaking concepts in Shanahan’s offense off play-action, which leads to big plays. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Edge rusher Bryce Huff will record at least nine sacks. Maybe this is just stubbornness, but there has to be a real chance that last year’s disappointment in Philadelphia was a one-year blip for Huff that can be overcome by returning to a Robert Saleh-schemed defense. As bad as last season was, it’s not enough to make me forget about the 10.0 sacks or the top-10 pass rush win rate at edge (22%) Huff recorded in 2023. — Walder
Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on SF
Chances to make the playoffs: 53.5%
Chances to win division: 22.1%
Projected wins: 9.1
Strength of schedule: 15th hardest
2024 record: 10-7
Biggest strength: Yeah, it’s preseason and they haven’t played many opposing starters, but the Broncos’ defense has dominated at every turn. After two preseason games, the Broncos were No. 1 in scoring defense, total defense, pass defense and third-down defense while allowing the fewest first downs. It is a deep group up front with a secondary that has a legitimate claim as the league’s best. If the defense carries the preseason momentum to the regular season, the only thing that could stand in the Broncos’ way is injuries. — Jeff Legwold
Biggest concern: The Broncos were among the league leaders in total yards during the preseason, but that has been mostly a product of the second- and third-team offenses. The first-team offense has mostly looked meh in limited snaps. Quarterback Bo Nix is closer to finding a rhythm, and focused game-planning will help, but the Broncos’ offense has had issues manufacturing drives and finding explosive plays against its first-team defense. If that continues against opponents, it might be difficult for coach Sean Payton’s team to have the fast start he desires. — Legwold
QB stat to know: Nix threw for 3,775 yards last season, which was the most among rookies. Nix’s air yards per attempt was 12.9, and his QBR was 81 when targeting Courtland Sutton, but when targeting all others, his air yards per attempt dropped to 5.3 and QBR to 51. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: TE Evan Engram. The Broncos’ system is an upgrade for Engram and so is the quarterback play with Nix. Engram averaged 9.9 PPG with the Jaguars last season (in nine games played), a year removed from his 111 receptions in 2023. Catch-and-run targets will be in play here for Engram and so will the seam-stretching concepts that allow the tight end to attack schemed voids in coverage via Payton’s offense. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Cornerback Riley Moss will record at least five interceptions in a breakout third-year campaign. Playing opposite Pat Surtain II means plenty of balls will be thrown Moss’ direction — which should give him opportunities to make those picks. Plus, I think the Broncos are going to be good this season, so opponents will be trailing (and throwing) more often than not. — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 58.0%
Chances to win division: 30.3%
Projected wins: 9.3
Strength of schedule: 16th easiest
2024 record: 10-7
Biggest strength: Their pass rush. The same group that sacked Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold nine times in their playoff game in January has mostly returned in 2025. Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse led all rookies in pressures during the season but said he came into training camp realizing how much better he could get after rewatching every play from last season. “People are like, ‘Oh, you’re good, you’re good,'” Verse said. “No, I’ve got so much farther to go.” — Sarah Barshop
Biggest concern: Matthew Stafford‘s back. The Rams quarterback, entering his 17th season, is dealing with an aggravated disk in his back and missed nearly the first month of training camp. Though Stafford could still play in the Rams’ season opener against the Texans, there’s a chance this back injury is something the quarterback and the Rams will have to manage all season. — Barshop
QB stat to know: Stafford was productive when he had to leave the pocket last season, throwing eight touchdowns on passes from outside the pocket, tied for second most in the NFL. — ESPN Research
1:16
Why fantasy managers should pick up Baker Mayfield this season
Field Yates discusses why Baker Mayfield is one of the best values outside of the top 5 at QB in fantasy this season.
How to win your fantasy league: Davante Adams. The wide receiver, who averaged 17.2 fantasy PPG across his time with the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets last season, is still one of the best at getting loose versus press-man defense. And Adams can use his coverage awareness to find open grass. That’s key when playing as the X receiver (opposite Puka Nacua), where Adams can win those backside one-on-ones for Stafford. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Nacua will lead the NFL in receiving yards. It’s hard to stress just how efficient Nacua was last season: His 3.7 yards per route run last year are the second most by any receiver in the past decade (behind Tyreek Hill in 2023) — even ahead of Cooper Kupp‘s monstrous 2021 season (3.2). The biggest question in this case might simply be whether Stafford can stay healthy long enough to get his receiver there. — Walder
Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on LAR
Chances to make the playoffs: 43.9%
Chances to win division: 19.0%
Projected wins: 8.6
Strength of schedule: Fifth hardest (tie)
2024 record: 14-3
Biggest strength: The Vikings used the value of quarterback J.J. McCarthy‘s rookie contract to assemble a talented — and expensive — roster around him. Ten of their projected 22 starters have been named to at least one Pro Bowl, three of whom they signed in March: center Ryan Kelly, along with defensive linemen Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. All told, the Vikings have committed roughly $350 million in cash to their 2025 roster. — Kevin Seifert
Biggest concern: McCarthy is more of an unknown than a concern, but his lack of experience — he became the first quarterback in the modern era to miss his entire rookie season because of injury after being drafted in the first round — is the biggest question on the team. He displayed moxie and precocious leadership skills during training camp but also revealed a level of inaccuracy that the Vikings hope will resolve itself as he settles into the role. — Seifert
QB stat to know: At 22 years old, McCarthy is expected to be the youngest quarterback to start in Week 1 this season. Assuming he starts, McCarthy will be the fourth quarterback over the past 20 seasons to make his first career start on “Monday Night Football” in Week 1 (Darnold with the Jets in 2018, Aaron Rodgers with the Packers in 2008, Philip Rivers with the Chargers in 2006). — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: McCarthy. The quarterback returns after missing his entire rookie season due to a torn meniscus. Playing in coach Kevin O’Connell’s QB-friendly offense, McCarthy has a premier No.1 target in Justin Jefferson, while tight end T.J. Hockenson can open up the middle of the field. Plus, McCarthy can create with his legs as a runner. He’s a late-round sleeper in deeper leagues. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Running back Jordan Mason will record at least 1,100 rushing yards. He’ll split work with Aaron Jones Sr., but I expect Mason to lead the team in rush attempts. He recorded 207 rush yards over expectation last season in San Francisco, and I could see the pass-happy Vikings running a little more to support their rookie quarterback. — Walder
Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on MIN
Chances to make the playoffs: 54.3%
Chances to win division: 42.5%
Projected wins: 8.8
Strength of schedule: 14th easiest (tie)
2024 record: 10-7
Biggest strength: The Texans’ strong suit is their edge rushers, led by Pro Bowlers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. Last season, the duo combined for 23 sacks, and there is no reason to believe they can’t reach 30. That might seem ambitious, but the secondary Houston has will force quarterbacks to hold the ball a tick longer, which should give them time to rack up more sacks. — DJ Bien-Aime
Biggest concern: Most of the starters on the offensive line have struggled throughout their career, or at least recently. Tackle Aireontae Ersery looked promising in camp, though he is a rookie, and T Tytus Howard is proven. But outside of them, the starters could be a few guys who have been castoffs. So how will that come together in a pivotal Year 3 for coach DeMeco Ryans? — Bien-Aime
QB stat to know: C.J. Stroud was sacked 52 times last season, second most in the league and fourth most in franchise history. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: WR Jayden Higgins. At 6-4 and 212 pounds, Higgins is a natural catcher with his hands and displays the body control to finish plays. Higgins, who had eight red zone touchdown grabs last season at Iowa State, should play a defined role in the Texans’ three-wide receiver sets and could emerge as the No. 2 opposite Nico Collins this season. You can grab Higgins in the later rounds, too. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Cornerback Kamari Lassiter will make the Pro Bowl. Derek Stingley Jr. rightfully earns most of the headlines, but Lassiter had a really nice rookie season during which he allowed 0.9 yards per coverage snap — better than average for an outside corner — per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 58.9%
Chances to win division: 48.7%
Projected wins: 9.0
Strength of schedule: 14th easiest (tie)
2024 record: 10-7
Biggest strength: The offense. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is coming off back-to-back career-best seasons. He threw 41 touchdowns in 2024, a season in which he didn’t have all of his playmakers. The Bucs’ receiving corps has taken two huge injury hits with Chris Godwin likely not playing until October and Jalen McMillan out until November, so the team will need to lean on Mayfield once again to run the show. — Jenna Laine
Biggest concern: Pressure off the edge. The Bucs defense couldn’t get off the field on third down in their wild-card playoff loss to the Commanders, and they got a lot deeper in their secondary to help address this. But on the edge, though they signed Haason Reddick in free agency, draft pick David Walker suffered a torn ACL, Yaya Diaby is still learning how to finish, and Chris Braswell has yet to really flash going into Year 2. — Laine
QB stat to know: Mayfield was at the forefront of Tampa Bay’s success last season, tying for second in passing touchdowns (41) and ranking third in passing yards (4,500) and completion percentage (71%). He was the only quarterback to rank in the top three in all three of those categories last season. — ESPN Research
0:55
Marvin Harrison Jr. needs to be the alpha in the Cardinals offense
Daniel Dopp discusses why Marvin Harrison Jr. needs more targets to be a viable high-end fantasy option.
How to win your fantasy league: WR Emeka Egbuka. With Godwin (ankle) out for the start of the season and McMillian on IR (neck) for at least the first four games, the door is open for the rookie Egbuka to emerge quickly as a target for Mayfield. A receiver with inside/outside flexibility, Egbuka is a smooth route runner who can get open and be available to the quarterback. Plus, he is competitive after the catch. Put him on your draft board. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Diaby will record double-digit sacks in a breakout season. Diaby put up a solid 15% pass rush win rate as a sophomore (close to average for an edge rusher) along with 4.5 sacks. In Todd Bowles’ blitz-heavy scheme, his numbers could jump. — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 44.6%
Chances to win division: 18.5%
Projected wins: 8.6
Strength of schedule: 10th hardest
2024 record: 10-7
Biggest strength: Defensive physicality. The Steelers’ strength entering this season was their undoing in their 2024 season-ending five-game losing streak. To rectify the issue, they drafted defensive linemen Derrick Harmon and Yahya Black, traded for CB Jalen Ramsey and signed CB Darius Slay. Adding those players to a defense that already includes a newly extended LB T.J. Watt and DT Cameron Heyward, who is coming off an All-Pro season, figures to return this group to the unit that held teams to 16.9 points per game through the first 11 weeks — not the one that gave up 27 PPG in the last seven of 2024. — Brooke Pryor
Biggest concern: Offensive cohesion. The Steelers were OK with QB Aaron Rodgers taking his time to sign in the offseason, but now he, his offensive options and line must expedite their chemistry. Not only does Rodgers have to develop a strong connection with wide receivers, including DK Metcalf and Roman Wilson, in a condensed timeframe, but he also has to work with young offensive linemen to understand his cadence — all without playing snaps together in preseason games. Adding to the challenge is Broderick Jones moving from right tackle to left tackle and a new-look backfield after the departure of Najee Harris. — Pryor
QB stat to know: Though Rodgers ranked toward the bottom of the league in QBR, yards per attempt and turnovers during his latest two healthy seasons (2022 and 2024), an area he excelled at last year with the Jets was throwing deep. He had a 99.5 QBR on passes at least 25 yards downfield, second in the league. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: RB Kaleb Johnson. At 6-foot-1 and 224 pounds with straight-line acceleration and vision, the rookie fits the outside zone scheme in Pittsburgh. He had 21 rushes of 20 or more yards last season at Iowa, the second most in the country behind Ashton Jeanty, and Johnson can post receiving numbers on swings, screens and unders. He will share the backfield with Jaylen Warren, but earning the early-down volume can push him into the flex ranks. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Harmon will lead all rookie defensive tackles in sacks. He was the fifth DT selected, but my prospect sack model liked him the best, and he’s in a fantastic situation, playing alongside Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig and Heyward. — Walder
Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on PIT
Chances to make the playoffs: 35.1%
Chances to win division: 13.5%
Projected wins: 8.2
Strength of schedule: Second hardest (tie)
2024 record: 5-12
Biggest strength: Offensive weapons. The Bears added rookie tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden III to an already stacked group of returning pass catchers that features Rome Odunze, DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. Quarterback Caleb Williams has connected with all five of these players, but arguably his strongest chemistry in camp was built with wideout Olamide Zaccheaus, who arrived on a one-year deal in March. Ben Johnson has plenty of players looking for touches on offense, and that’s a good problem to have for the first-year coach. — Courtney Cronin
Biggest concern: Left tackle. It’s a position battle that spanned nearly all of camp and seems to have landed where it started, with incumbent left tackle Braxton Jones in line to start Week 1 versus Minnesota. The Bears poured a ton of resources into revamping the O-line this offseason, but how well the linemen will protect Williams’ blind side after he was sacked 68 times as a rookie remains a question. — Cronin
QB stat to know: Williams ranked 28th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in QBR in 2024 and averaged 5.1 yards per dropback (fewest in the NFL). Williams was sacked 68 times, 16 more than any other QB last season (Stroud, 52). — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: Burden. A rookie with upper-tier catch-and-run traits, Burden can be schemed up in Johnson’s offense. In addition to running multilevel routes from the slot and perimeter, Burden can produce on manufactured touches. He will have to compete for targets with Moore, Odunze and Loveland, but Burden has the playmaking talent to post breakout weeks. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: The Bears will rank in the top six in pass block win rate. This is, in part, because I’m buying their offensive line retooling and they have two tackles in Darnell Wright and Jones (assuming he wins the job) who were above average in PBWR in 2023 before falling off in 2024. It doesn’t mean there won’t be sacks — a lot of that is on Williams — but strong blocking will help all facets of the passing game. — Walder
Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on CHI
Chances to make the playoffs: 38.1%
Chances to win division: 16.1%
Projected wins: 8.3
Strength of schedule: Fifth easiest (tie)
2024 record: 8-9
Biggest strength: The defensive front. The Cardinals invested heavily in rebuilding their defensive line and edge rushers, signing pass rusher Josh Sweat and linemen Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell, and drafting edge rusher Jordan Burch. It has led to the Cardinals having their best and deepest defensive front in some time. But if that front can’t get to the quarterback and regularly stop the run, all the work general manager Monti Ossenfort put in and all the money he spent will have gone for naught. — Josh Weinfuss
Biggest concern: Will Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. be on the same page in 2025? Last season, Murray completed 54.4% of his throws to Harrison, but there were noticeable miscommunications. All offseason, coach Jonathan Gannon and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing have talked about how reps together will improve their continuity on the field and help that quarterback-receiver relationship. How goes the Murray-Harrison connection, so goes the offense. — Weinfuss
QB stat to know: Murray continues to have success on the ground. Since 2023, 73 NFL players have 100-plus rush attempts; Murray leads them all with 7.5 yards per rush. — ESPN Research
0:49
Why there are better fantasy options than Tua at QB
Field Yates concedes Tua Tagovailoa could “go off” now and then this season, but encourages fantasy managers to look elsewhere if they can.
How to win your fantasy league: Harrison. Bet on the talent with the wide receiver in his second pro season. In 2024, Harrison caught eight touchdowns, and his 17 end zone targets ranked third in the league. With a more versatile route tree, one that leans away from the heavy vertical aspect, Harrison can post steady WR2 numbers. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Nickel corner Garrett Williams will lead all slot defenders in yards per coverage snap allowed. He wasn’t that far off last year. His 0.7 yards per coverage snap in 2024, per NFL Next Gen Stats, ranked second behind only Derwin James Jr. at 0.5. — Walder
Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on ARI
Chances to make the playoffs: 28.2%
Chances to win division: 11.5%
Projected wins: 7.7
Strength of schedule: Fifth hardest (tie)
2024 record: 7-10
Biggest strength: First-year coach Brian Schottenheimer can say he wants to run the ball, but his biggest strength will be the passing game that revolves around Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Lamb can beat defenses at any level, and Pickens can get down the field with some of the best. And the last time Prescott played a full season (2023), he was the MVP runner-up. When it comes to crunch time, Schottenheimer will put his trust in this trio. — Todd Archer
Biggest concern: Run defense has been a concern for more than a few years, and it remains one entering this season. Cornerback is a worry, but eventually the team will get Trevon Diggs back, as well as third-round pick Shavon Revel Jr. The Cowboys don’t have similar help on the way for the run defense yet, and they face some of the top rushing teams in the Eagles, Commanders, Packers and Lions. The best way to help the run defense is to get out to big leads and force opponents to throw. — Archer
QB stat to know: In the 25 games started by Prescott over the past two seasons when Schottenheimer was the offensive coordinator, the Cowboys averaged 27.2 PPG, which would’ve been the fourth highest by any team during that span, behind the Lions (30.1), Ravens (29.4) and Bills (28.7). — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: RB Jaydon Blue. The Cowboys signed veterans Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders this offseason. However, Blue’s 4.38 speed and matchup ability as a receiver could allow him to get reps in the Dallas backfield. At 5-9 and 196 pounds, Blue is best suited to press the ball to the edges as a runner, while he wins on backfield releases. Blue missed time in camp because of an injury, but he is worth a late-round add in PPR leagues. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Kavontae Turpin will record multiple kick returns for touchdowns this season. Turpin led the NFL by a mile in kick return yards over expectation (+292) last year, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and with touchbacks now out to the 35-yard line, there should be plenty more returns this season. — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 33.5%
Chances to win division: 14.3%
Projected wins: 8.1
Strength of schedule: 11th easiest (tie)
2024 record: 10-7
Biggest strength: Continuity on defense. The Seahawks finished ninth in points allowed during coach Mike Macdonald’s debut season and have almost every key player back. In fact, 13 of the 16 defenders who played at least 300 snaps last season are still with the team. The same scheme taught by the same coaches to mostly the same group of players — with veteran edge DeMarcus Lawrence and rookie safety Nick Emmanwori as key additions — is good reason to think Macdonald’s group can take a step forward. — Brady Henderson
Biggest concern: Lack of continuity on offense. They’ve got a new coordinator, Klint Kubiak, who’s installing a new scheme with a mostly new coaching staff. They also have at least six new starters on that side of the ball, including quarterback Sam Darnold and two of his top three receivers. Kubiak’s unit has looked good enough of late not to be a major concern, but how quickly will all of those new players come together?
QB stat to know: Darnold, who signed as a free agent this offseason, is on his fourth team in as many years. During his breakout season with the Vikings in 2024, he set an NFL record for most touchdown passes (35) by a player who changed teams during the offseason. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: Elijah Arroyo. The tight end is a fluid mover in the open field with the buildup speed to tack on numbers after the catch, and he has the profile to be used as a “move” tight end under Kubiak. In his final college season at Miami, Arroyo caught 35 passes for 590 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s a deeper-league target. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Linebacker Ernest Jones IV will lead off-ball linebackers in pressures. Jones blitzed 15% of the time last season between Tennessee and Seattle, but in 2023 with the Rams, he blitzed 23% of the time (29% of the time in clear passing situations) and recorded a massive 35% pass rush win rate. In his first full season with the Seahawks, Macdonald could use Jones in creative pressure plays that result in him putting the quarterback under duress. — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 34.9%
Chances to win division: 14.7%
Projected wins: 8.1
Strength of schedule: 11th easiest (tie)
2024 record: 8-9
Biggest strength: The front seven. They’re tired of hearing about their durability, but if Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb and Chop Robinson can remain healthy, the Dolphins will have one of the better pass rushes in the NFL this season. Factor in defensive linemen Zach Sieler and Kenneth Grant, and versatile linebackers Jordyn Brooks, Tyrel Dodson and Willie Gay Jr., and the core of Miami’s defense shouldn’t have an issue pressuring quarterbacks and defending the run. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Biggest concern: The players behind that front seven — the secondary. Miami knows what it’s getting in Minkah Fitzpatrick but has a completely revamped secondary from a season ago. Second-year UDFA Storm Duck figures to start opposite Jack Jones at cornerback, and the group is unproven together. The Dolphins haven’t shown much concern for the group this offseason and believe the success of their defense starts up front. — Louis-Jacques
QB stat to know: Miami’s success hinges on Tua Tagovailoa‘s health, as the Dolphins were markedly better with their franchise quarterback on the field last season. Over the past three seasons (including the playoffs), Miami is 25-17 with Tagovailoa starting and 3-8 with all other quarterbacks. — ESPN Research
1:34
No. 1 fantasy tight end: Brock Bowers or Trey McBride?
Daniel Dopp and Field Yates discuss where to draft this season’s top two fantasy tight ends.
How to win your fantasy league: RB Ollie Gordon II. With De’Von Achane sidelined because of a calf injury, Gordon has value in the later rounds if he can lock down the No. 2 role in Miami. The rookie from Oklahoma State is a physical runner who can get north-south, and he can push the pile between the tackles. Plus, Gordon is a capable receiver on screens and could play a defined role early this season. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: WR Tyreek Hill will be traded. It’s hardly the boldest call on this list, considering how last year ended, but if Miami’s season goes south quickly — and it certainly could — it will make sense to deal Hill midway through the campaign to maximize the return as soon as possible rather than holding on to an aging player as a non-contender in the second half. — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 39.3%
Chances to win division: 27.1%
Projected wins: 8.1
Strength of schedule: Ninth easiest (tie)
2024 record: 4-13
Biggest strength: The Jaguars have arguably the best specialists in the league. Punter Logan Cooke made his first Pro Bowl last season and has the best net punt average (43.5 yards) and the most punts downed inside the 10-yard line (83) since entering the NFL in 2018. Long-snapper Ross Matiscik made the past two Pro Bowls and was a first-team All-Pro in 2023. Kicker Cam Little made 27 of 29 field goal attempts (including a 59-yarder) and all 27 PATs as a rookie last season. He hit a 70-yarder in the first preseason game earlier this month. — Mike DiRocco
Biggest concern: The run defense is a concern, but the defense’s lack of takeaways was a major issue last season. The Jaguars forced only nine turnovers, the fewest by a team in the 17-game era (tying the record Jacksonville set in 2021). That includes just six interceptions, which was a big reason the Jaguars were last in the NFL in pass defense (257.4 yards per game). They added three new starters in the secondary — corners Jourdan Lewis and Travis Hunter and safety Eric Murray — and pass rushers Emmanuel Ogbah (47.5 career sacks) and Dawuane Smoot (25), as well as new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile. — DiRocco
QB stat to know: Injuries derailed the end of his season, but quarterback Trevor Lawrence struggled in the 10 games he played. His 61% completion rate ranked above only Anthony Richardson Sr.‘s 48% in 2024 among 36 qualified quarterbacks. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: Hunter. The CB/WR brings a true playmaking element to coach Liam Coen’s system. A sudden mover after the catch with electric ability in the open field, Hunter also has elite ball skills and body control at the catch point. Though his total snap count on offense has yet to be determined, Hunter fits as a WR3 who could produce WR2 numbers some weeks with his ability to flip the field. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: The percentage of snaps Hunter plays will total at least 145% if we add offense and defense. There have been plenty of signs that the Jaguars intend to give Hunter a major role on both sides of the ball, but it’s one thing to intend to do that in August and another to have him execute that plan during the regular season. I’m a believer, though. People don’t play both ways in college either, and Hunter did it at altitude. — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 32.0%
Chances to win division: 21.1%
Projected wins: 7.7
Strength of schedule: Eighth easiest
2024 record: 8-9
Biggest strength: Defensive line. The Colts rank in the top 10 in spending on interior defensive linemen and edge rushers, and that has created perhaps the team’s strongest position group. The unit is anchored by DT DeForest Buckner and has several solid veterans throughout, such as DEs Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam and NT Grover Stewart. The additions of 2024 first-round choice Laiatu Latu and this year’s second-round pick JT Tuimoloau give the group a chance to reach the next level. — Stephen Holder
Biggest concern: Quarterback. The Colts have selected Daniel Jones as their Week 1 starter over third-year player and incumbent starter Anthony Richardson Sr., the latest domino to fall in the team’s woeful quarterback story. Jones will be the Colts’ 11th different starting quarterback in a regular-season game since Andrew Luck abruptly retired before the 2019 season. Indianapolis’ lack of stability at the position continues to undermine what is otherwise a mostly solid roster. — Holder
QB stat to know: Jones is 4-0 against the AFC South in his career, and his QBR of 81 in those games is the highest by any quarterback with at least three starts against his new division over the past five seasons. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: TE Tyler Warren. A physical and rugged mover who can work the middle of the field and produce after the catch, Warren can impact the Colts’ passing game from a variety of pre-snap alignments. He had 104 receptions in his final season at Penn State, and he should be a reliable target for Jones. Warren is an upside play who can be drafted as a fringe TE1 in 12-team leagues. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Adonai Mitchell will record at least 700 receiving yards. I’m a believer in the receiver after a somewhat disappointing rookie campaign, which was plagued by missed connections downfield, because he also showed signs of real potential. Mitchell recorded an 82 open score (top 10 among wide receivers). I’m betting that skill will pay dividends. — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 24.1%
Chances to win division: 6.9%
Projected wins: 7.5
Strength of schedule: 16th hardest
2024 record: 4-13
Biggest strength: Coaching. Pete Carroll has only four losing seasons in his 18-year NFL coaching career. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who helped Ohio State win a national title last season, has plenty of players to get creative with his scheme. Even though Las Vegas has a strong foundation for the future, Carroll wants to win right away, and his team will be competitive enough to give opponents problems weekly. — Ryan McFadden
Biggest concern: Depth. The Raiders have a significant talent drop-off at multiple positions. Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker are the only wide receivers to surpass 500 yards in a season. Eric Stokes has started 32 career games, and the rest of the group has a combined 22 starts. If the Raiders are to overcome their depth issues, they will need rookies such as wide receiver Dont’e Thornton Jr., cornerback Darien Porter, and defensive tackles Tonka Hemingway and JJ Pegues to be solid contributors. — McFadden
QB stat to know: Over the past three seasons, Geno Smith has been one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, ranking fourth in completion percentage and first in off-target rate. Over that span, Raiders quarterbacks ranked 25th in completion percentage and 23rd in off-target rate. — ESPN Research
1:28
Why Field Yates has high fantasy expectations for Malik Nabers
Field Yates and Daniel Dopp discuss why Malik Nabers is primed to repeat his fantasy production from last season.
How to win your fantasy league: Meyers, assuming his trade request isn’t granted. The receiver averaged 14.4 PPG last season with 10 games of double-digit fantasy production and six games with at least 10 targets. A physical route runner with the frame to uncover and work the interior of the field, Meyers will remain a primary target opposite tight end Brock Bowers in an upgraded Raiders pass game with Smith at QB and Kelly calling plays. Meyers is a solid — and consistent — WR3. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Kelly will be an NFL head coach in 2026. OK, technically that isn’t a bold prediction for 2025, but there’s no way Kelly will land another head coaching job unless his Raiders offense in 2025 does well. Once it does, owners will zoom out and look at that, his success at Ohio State, his time as UCLA’s head coach and parts of his previous NFL tenure and think: That’s a pretty good résumé! — Walder
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Chances to make the playoffs: 37.4%
Chances to win division: 26.5%
Projected wins: 8.1
Strength of schedule: 13th easiest
2024 record: 8-9
Biggest strength: The running game. Bijan Robinson was third in the league in rushing yards (1,456) and tied for the third-most rushing touchdowns (14). Tyler Allgeier is one of the best No. 2 backs in the NFL (he has a 1,000-yard rushing season), and the offensive line is among the league’s best units, with a rare amount of continuity. The Falcons were fourth last season in percentage of rush yards over expected (38.8%). — Marc Raimondi
Biggest concern: Will second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. be as good as the Falcons think? Penix performed relatively well in his three 2024 starts. In that limited time, he was tied for ninth among quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (0.11, minimum 100 dropbacks). He is aggressive and will make big plays. Penix was tied for first last season in air yards per completion (8.0). But his accuracy must improve. In 2024, he was fifth worst in completion percentage over expected (-5.3%). — Raimondi
QB stat to know: In his limited work late last season, Penix attempted 26 passes of 15 or more air yards downfield, by far the most of any player over the final two weeks of the regular season. However, he completed only 10 of those attempts (38%). — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: WR Darnell Mooney. He is still out because of a shoulder injury sustained early in camp. When he returns, however, Mooney has the skill set and route deployment to join the WR3 discussion. Last season, Mooney averaged 12.2 PPG and 15.5 yards per reception. Plus, with Penix taking over the offense this season, look for the Falcons’ pass game to get a boost. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Center Ryan Neuzil will rank in the top five in run block win rate. In 547 snaps last season, he posted a 71% RBWR (ninth best at center), and some unpublished work I did this offseason measuring the vertical push of offensive linemen on run plays reflected very favorably on Neuzil. — Walder
Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on ATL
Chances to make the playoffs: 30.5%
Chances to win division: 13.1%
Projected wins: 7.9
Strength of schedule: Third easiest
2024 record: 4-13
Biggest strength: Rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson. It is perhaps bold to highlight a rookie second-round pick, but he is unlike any RB the Patriots have had speed-wise in recent years, and he has also shown a knack for running between the tackles, as evidenced by his 100-yard return for a TD on the opening kickoff of the preseason and his 8-yard TD run in Week 2. The Patriots finally have a player who is a threat to score any time he touches the football. — Mike Reiss
Biggest concern: Depth across the roster. The drop-off from starter to backup at the majority of positions is significant, which highlights the organization’s struggle at drafting and developing in recent years. However, the 2025 draft class appears to be a solid foundation, with three projected opening-day starters (not including specialists). — Reiss
QB stat to know: Drake Maye recorded 2,276 passing yards, 15 passing TDs and 409 rushing yards in 13 games (12 starts) as a rookie. Maye recorded those numbers without a 700-yard receiver; tight end Hunter Henry was the team leader with 674 receiving yards. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: Henderson. A slasher with big-play ability and the pass-catching skills to produce on third downs, Henderson will share the backfield with Rhamondre Stevenson. Henderson caught 46 passes over his final two seasons at Ohio State (a number that will elevate in a pro offense), and he can operate as a matchup target for Maye. With the expected volume here, Henderson has upside as an RB2. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: Free agent addition DT Milton Williams will finish outside the top 10 in pass rush win rate and have fewer than 5.0 sacks. At $26 million per year, the Patriots are expecting him to hit at least one of those marks. But I have some questions about how well Williams will fare when he has to play more — and without the Eagles’ defensive front around him. — Walder
Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on NE
Chances to make the playoffs: 11.3%
Chances to win division: 3.9%
Projected wins: 6.4
Strength of schedule: Hardest
2024 record: 7-10
Biggest strength: The defensive front. Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence II were in the top 20 in pressure percentage at their respective positions last season. Kayvon Thibodeaux already has a double-digit sack season (11.5 in 2023). Add No. 3 draft pick Abdul Carter to that mix, and the Giants’ pass rush has the potential to be lethal. Now, the Giants have to get the lead and stop the run to maximize that talent. — Jordan Raanan
Biggest concern: Can the offense score enough? The Giants have raved about veteran quarterback Russell Wilson‘s leadership and the effect it will have on the group. But is it enough to turn the 31st-ranked scoring offense into a more effective unit? New York returns 10 of 11 starters on offense, and perhaps its most indispensable player, left tackle Andrew Thomas, was recently activated off the PUP list and didn’t play a preseason snap. — Raanan
QB stat to know: In free agency, the Giants added Wilson, who won Super Bowl XLVIII at MetLife Stadium and is the only one of the 34 different quarterbacks to start at least four games there (including playoffs) without losing since it opened in 2010. — ESPN Research
0:43
Why Joe Flacco makes Jerry Jeudy a top-20 WR
Daniel Dopp cites the fact that Joe Flacco is the Browns’ starting quarterback as the reason Jerry Jeudy is worth taking earlier in fantasy.
How to win your fantasy league: Wan’Dale Robinson. He is an easy separator underneath with the catch-and-run traits to tack on numbers (52.1% of his receiving yardage came after the catch). Plus, Robinson averaged 10.7 PPG on a subpar Giants team last season, with nine games of double-digit production and 12 weeks with at least five targets. He’s a late-round option in 12-team leagues who will see volume out of the slot in coach Brian Daboll’s offense. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: QB Jaxson Dart will make his first start no later than Week 5. There has been buzz around Dart’s preseason, and I can’t imagine the Giants are too excited to cling to the Wilson era longer than they have to with a first-round QB waiting in the wings. Facing the Saints in Week 5 could be a nice soft landing for Dart to begin his NFL career. — Walder
Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on NYG
Chances to make the playoffs: 21.0%
Chances to win division: 14.0%
Projected wins: 7.0
Strength of schedule: Fifth easiest (tie)
2024 record: 5-12
Biggest strength: The starting offensive line. Everyone is back, plus key backups, from a unit that allowed 36 sacks last season, which was way down from the 65 it gave up in 2023. This group also paved the way for the 18th-best rushing attack in 2024. Not great but a key to the offense’s improvement, nonetheless. This bodes well for QB Bryce Young, whose late-season performance was bolstered by better protection and a strong run game. — David Newton
Biggest concern: The defense. There could be as many as six new starters on a unit that finished last in the NFL in several major categories last season, most notably run defense, quarterback pressure, total yards allowed and total points allowed. Getting Pro Bowl DL Derrick Brown back will help. So will the free agent additions. But overall, the depth is thin, and it might take a while for this group to jell. — Newton
QB stat to know: Though Young had a rough start to the 2024 season and was benched after Week 2, he returned for Week 8 and had a strong finish. He was sensational over the final three weeks of the regular season with 10 pass/rush touchdowns, zero turnovers and the third-best QBR of any quarterback from Weeks 16 to 18. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: WR Tetairoa McMillan. More smooth than fast, McMillan can play as a boundary X or create inside matchups from the slot. With his 6-4 frame, he can get up high on contested throws, and he has a good feel for finding open voids versus zone concepts. McMillan will play a volume role as a rookie, which creates a WR3 floor. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: The Panthers will record the fewest sacks in the league. For starters, I don’t see where the pass rush is coming from (especially if rookie Nic Scourton misses time after suffering a collapsed lung). But also, I doubt the Panthers will be leading in many games. If they’re behind, their opponents will run on them, limiting the sack opportunities. — Walder
Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on CAR
Chances to make the playoffs: 15.6%
Chances to win division: 5.7%
Projected wins: 6.9
Strength of schedule: Seventh easiest
2024 record: 5-12
Biggest strength: Defense. They still have six of their top nine snap leaders from the 2023 defense, which finished No. 3 in EPA. Edge rusher Will McDonald IV, a seldom-used rookie in 2023, is now one of their top players. This unit has talent at all three levels. Look for more blitzing and more man coverage than in recent years. The defense will have to carry the flag until the offense finds its way. — Rich Cimini
Biggest concern: Justin Fields and the passing attack. Fields is only a 61% career passer who has yet to throw more than 17 touchdowns in a season, and now he has a receiving corps that includes just one legitimate playmaker (Garrett Wilson). The Jets will rely on scheme (RPOs and play-action) to create open looks for Fields. This will be a run-first offense, with Breece Hall, Braelon Allen and Fields leading the way. — Cimini
QB stat to know: Fields recorded a 51 QBR last season. The last Jets quarterback to post at least a 50 QBR (considered average on a 0-100 scale) in a season was Josh McCown in 2017. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: Fields. The quarterback averaged 18.9 PPG in his six starts with the Steelers last season. He passed for 1,106 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 289 yards and five more scores. Fields will have a true No.1 wide receiver in Wilson, while Hall can operate as an underneath target at running back. With Fields’ high-level dual-threat traits, he should be targeted as a fringe QB1 in 12-team leagues. — Bowen
Bold prediction for 2025: The Jets will lead the league in run rate over expectation. And that number won’t even include Fields’ scrambles, which I expect to be plentiful! With Fields at quarterback and no great receiving playmakers after Wilson, I expect this team will run the ball a lot. — Walder
Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on NYJ
Chances to make the playoffs: 8.5%
Chances to win division: 2.3%
Projected wins: 6.1
Strength of schedule: 13th hardest
2024 record: 3-14
Biggest strength: Defensive line. Myles Garrett is a year removed from being named Defensive Player of the Year, and the Browns have multiple players equipped to take advantage of one-on-one opportunities as he commands extra attention. Free agent signing Maliek Collins had the seventh-highest pass rush win rate as an interior defender last season, and Mason Graham, the No. 5 pick, had nine sacks in three seasons with Michigan. — Daniel Oyefusi
Biggest concern: Quarterback. Joe Flacco will begin the year as the starter, but he hasn’t played an entire season since 2017. Kenny Pickett is on his third team in four years, and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders might not be ready to play for a while. The Browns have started a league-high 40 passers since 1999, and the likelihood is they add more players to that tally. — Oyefusi
QB stat to know: The Browns desperately need an upgrade at quarterback this season. In 2024, their quarterbacks had a 35 QBR, the worst in the league. In addition, Cleveland has not had a Pro Bowl QB since Derek Anderson in 2007, the longest active drought in the NFL. — ESPN Research
How to win your fantasy league: WR Cedric Tillman. With Flacco entering the season as the No.1 quarterback, Tillman has potential as a late-round target. A 6-3 receiver who can play through contact and win on in-breaking concepts, Tillman averaged 18.8 points from Weeks 7 to 11 last season before suffering a concussion that ended his season. — Bowen Bold prediction for 2025: The Browns will trade Joel Bitonio or Wyatt Teller in-season. It makes too much sense. They are veteran guards, each in the last year of their contracts, on a team likely going nowhere in 2025. Plus, the Browns have Teven Jenkins waiting in the wings. — Walder Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on CLE Chances to make the playoffs: 15.6% Biggest strength: Offensive line. General manager Mike Borgonzi wanted to invest in the trenches, so Tennessee strengthened both tackle spots by signing Dan Moore Jr. and flipping JC Latham to the right side. Kevin Zeitler helps shore up the interior next to Latham. The Titans now have two Day 1 picks in Latham and Peter Skoronski on the line and two free agents on lucrative deals in Moore and Lloyd Cushenberry III (center) to go along with Zeitler, who’s a proven veteran. — Turron Davenport Biggest concern: Coach Brian Callahan. The once highly sought-after coach struggled last season, but he is clawing to find his way. Callahan has to show that he can effectively call plays and outfox opposing coaches. That will be difficult with a roster that doesn’t have a lot of premier players. The front office is willing to show patience with Callahan because it believes he can get it right. Developing No. 1 draft pick Cam Ward will be the key. — Davenport QB stat to know: In his final season at Miami, Ward threw for 4,313 yards. Only twice in franchise history has the team had a QB throw for at least 4,000 yards in a season, both times coming before the team moved to Tennessee (Warren Moon in 1990 and 1991). — ESPN Research How to win your fantasy league: Ward. A big-arm thrower with movement skills and the creativity to work outside of structure, Ward is a solid fit for the Titans’ offense. He has a top target in receiver Calvin Ridley, tight end Chig Okonkwo can produce after the catch, and the team signed veteran receiver Tyler Lockett. Ward has starting value in 2QB/superflex formats and can climb the QB2 ranks. — Bowen Bold prediction for 2025: Ward will have under a 5% sack rate. That would be a nice building block to his NFL career, and tough to do if the Titans are usually losing. But Ward was better than average at avoiding sacks last season with Miami (4.3% sack rate), and I like the Titans’ additions to their offensive line. — Walder Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on TEN Chances to make the playoffs: 17.1% Biggest strength: Safeties. The Saints have revamped their secondary, as four of their Week 1 starters in the backfield from last year are gone (Marshon Lattimore traded, Paulson Adebo and Will Harris left in free agency, Tyrann Mathieu retired). But the Saints made two solid signings at safety, adding Justin Reid early in free agency and getting Julian Blackmon after Mathieu’s departure. Both become instant starters and bring veteran experience, while rookie safety Jonas Sanker has had an impressive camp. This group didn’t show signs of falling off in camp despite Mathieu’s surprise retirement. — Katherine Terrell Biggest concern: Quarterback. The Saints took their quarterback competition through the preseason — an indication that neither Tyler Shough nor Spencer Rattler had made an obvious case to win the job early. Last week, coach Kellen Moore announced that Rattler won the job. The Saints didn’t have a lot of depth at their skill positions last season because of injuries, and that remains the case beyond Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. That means the team will need Rattler to step up big to elevate the rest of the offense. — Terrell QB stat to know: After Derek Carr‘s retirement, Shough was selected by the Saints in the second round of the draft. As the third-oldest quarterback drafted in the first two rounds in the common draft era — he turns 26 in September — Shough brings a lot of experience to New Orleans despite being a rookie. — ESPN Research How to win your fantasy league: Shaheed. The receiver’s 2024 season was cut short because of surgery to repair a torn meniscus, but he has the deep-ball ability and catch-and-run juice to produce in the Saints’ system under Moore. In six games last season, Shaheed averaged 13.3 PPG and 17.3 yards per catch. He can be schemed by Moore to test multiple levels of the field. — Bowen Bold prediction for 2025: Olave will be a top-15 wide receiver in total fantasy points. Concussions cost Olave half the season last year, and considering he is being drafted as WR40, it seems it’s being forgotten just how good the young receiver has been in his short career. He broke 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first two years in the league and recorded a 75 open score or better (well above average) in all three of his NFL seasons. — Walder
Chances to win division: 9.3%
Projected wins: 6.7
Strength of schedule: Fourth easiest
2024 record: 3-14
Chances to win division: 10.9%
Projected wins: 6.8
Strength of schedule: Second easiest
2024 record: 5-12
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David Schoenfield
With each postseason expansion throughout MLB’s history, the value of division races has diluted. In the wild-card era, you can finish in second place — or even third or fourth — and still win the World Series.
Does that make September less exciting? There’s no doubt it brings more teams and more fans into the mix. And a big game is still a big game, even if there is slightly less tension in a Red Sox-Yankees or Mets-Phillies series than there otherwise might be if both teams already know they’re going to make the playoffs.
Thus, we’re mostly left with wild-card races and battles for seeding to occupy our time and scoreboard watching. That still offers plenty of fun, still makes September the best month on the baseball calendar, and there’s still a lot of sweating going on when your closer walks two batters in the ninth trying to protect a one-run lead. The 12 postseason slots aren’t completely locked up, so if you’re a fan of the Mets or Mariners, you can’t breathe easily just yet — not until a playoff spot is clinched and the champagne uncorked.
September is here, believe it or not. We have races to decide. Let’s rank their potential excitement level over the final month.
1. National League West race
Standings: Los Angeles Dodgers up 2 games on San Diego Padres
What’s at stake: This is the best rivalry going on in the majors right now. The teams don’t like each other, the fans don’t like each other, and there’s still that element of David trying to knock out Goliath as the Padres seek their first division title since 2006 and their first World Series title ever. The teams have met three times in the NL Division Series since 2020 — with the Dodgers winning in 2020 and 2024 and the Padres victorious in 2022 — and with another rematch possible, home-field advantage could be key.
Do the Dodgers need to win the division? No, they will still be more focused on getting the pitching staff healthy and ready for October than on getting consumed in the race to win the division. It would probably mean more to the Padres, who want to finally beat their I-5 rivals in something besides that one playoff series. On the other hand, San Diego is probably a little better equipped for a short wild-card series, as it can ride its bullpen for the two or three games.
Series to watch: Somehow, the schedule-makers thought it would be a good idea to not have the Dodgers playing the Padres in September. The Dodgers finish with a road trip to Arizona and Seattle while the Padres end at home against Milwaukee and Arizona. The Dodgers won the season series, so they own the tiebreaker.
Dodgers player to watch: Blake Snell has been a notable second-half pitcher in his career and has a 2.54 ERA since returning from the injured list in August, but he hasn’t been quite as dominant as when he gets on one of his patented hot streaks (such as the second half last year, when he had a 1.45 ERA and .130 average allowed). The Dodgers won last season despite a beat-up rotation that wasn’t even all that effective in the playoffs. But the bullpen has been nowhere near as strong this season as in 2024, so they’ll need that dominant version of Snell down the stretch and in October.
Padres player to watch: Ramon Laureano has been the team’s best hitter since he was acquired at the trade deadline, slashing .305/.354/.581 with seven home runs and 23 RBIs in 28 games. He helped keep the offense afloat in August as Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. each hit just one home run on the month and Jackson Merrill has been injured. Laureano’s production has been great, but the Padres need more power from their big two.
2. American League East
Standings: Toronto Blue Jays up 3 games on New York Yankees, 3.5 games on Boston Red Sox
What’s at stake: This has been the wildest division race all season. The Blue Jays were eight games back in late May when they fell under .500 but have now held first place since July 3. The Yankees fell as many as 6.5 games back in August before cleaning up against the Washington Nationals and Chicago White Sox this past week to draw closer. The Red Sox were 41-44 on June 30, but only the Brewers have a better record since that date. The Yankees have a plus-134 run differential, whereas it’s plus-56 for the Blue Jays and plus-102 for the Red Sox, so you wonder why they’re even in this position. However, New York is 5-8 in extra-inning games (the Blue Jays are 8-4) and hasn’t played well against Toronto and Boston (5-15).
Series to watch: Blue Jays at Yankees (Friday-Sunday); Red Sox at Blue Jays (Sept. 23-25); Yankees at Red Sox (Sept. 12-14). All three season series have already been clinched: The Blue Jays over the Red Sox and Yankees and the Red Sox over the Yankees. That will leave the Yankees on the short end of any tiebreaker.
Blue Jays player to watch: Toronto acquired Shane Bieber at the deadline even though he was still completing his minor league rehab from Tommy John surgery. He has allowed three runs in two starts for the Blue Jays, striking out 15 with no walks in 11⅓ innings. It’s just two starts, but he looks like he did when he was the Cleveland ace, plus he has allowed the Jays to go to a six-man rotation. Don’t be surprised if he ends up as the Game 1 starter in the postseason.
Yankees player to watch: Aaron Judge is still probably the MVP favorite, but after missing 10 days with a flexor strain in his right elbow, he hasn’t been quite the same, hitting .241/.417/.506 with six home runs and 12 RBIs in 24 games in August. Though those are still good numbers, it seems fair to call it a slight slump by Judge’s recent historic standards — and it’s not the same level of production as before his injury. He also still hasn’t played the field, which limits the red-hot Giancarlo Stanton to pinch-hitting duties when the Yankees are on the road (manager Aaron Boone has been willing to play Stanton in right field at Yankee Stadium, where there’s less ground to cover).
Red Sox player to watch: Sixty-nine games into his career, 21-year-old rookie Roman Anthony has made it clear: He’s going to be a big star. Sure, he can cut his strikeout rate a bit, but he already has A-plus plate discipline and has the second-highest hard-hit percentage in the majors behind only Kyle Schwarber. And Anthony is also quickly learning to lift the ball, slugging six home runs in August after hitting one each in June and July.
3. National League race for No. 2 seed
Standings: Milwaukee Brewers hold No. 1 seed with 5.5-game cushion; Philadelphia Phillies up 1 game on Dodgers, 3 games on Padres
What’s at stake: The Phillies hold a comfortable lead over the Mets in the NL East, so they have about a 90% chance of winning the division, but Philadelphia is neck and neck with the pair of NL West rivals for the second-best record in the NL. Home-field advantage isn’t a must to win a World Series — we’ve seen wild-card teams take it all, such as the Rangers in 2023 when they were the fifth seed in the AL — but the Phillies have an extreme home/road split this season, going 45-23 in Philadelphia and 34-35 elsewhere. They’re hitting .275 with an .808 OPS at home, .239 with a .693 OPS on the road.
Series to watch: Phillies at Dodgers (Sept. 15-17). The Phillies finish with a six-game homestand against the Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins, which looks like a favorable way to end the season.
Phillies player to watch: Kyle Schwarber, of course, and Cristopher Sanchez as he takes over the role of staff ace from the injured Zack Wheeler. But the bullpen has been the issue the past two postseasons for the Phillies, which puts Jhoan Duran on the spot as well. Acquired from the Twins at the trade deadline to take over as closer, Duran has mostly done the job, but he blew one save against the Nationals, picking up the loss, and then lost another game against the Mets when he allowed four straight hits without getting an out.
4. American League race for top two seeds
Standings: Detroit Tigers hold No. 1 seed and are up 0.5 games on Blue Jays, 3.5 games on Yankees, 4 games on Red Sox and 4.5 games on Astros
What’s at stake: Bragging rights? Momentum heading into the postseason? Home-field advantage? Sure, all those things are nice, and the Tigers have a notable home/road split (44-25 versus 36-33), so securing that top seed, which they’ve held much of the way in the AL, would be the final touch on an excellent regular season. Still, if you’re manager A.J. Hinch, you’re not going to burn out your rotation in September just to get that top seed. If the Astros climb closer to the Tigers and Blue Jays, however, it will get more interesting as teams want to avoid that wild-card series if possible.
Series to watch: Tigers at Yankees (Sept. 9-11); Tigers at Red Sox (Sept. 26-28); Yankees at Astros (Tuesday-Thursday); Astros at Blue Jays (Sept. 9-11)
Tigers player to watch: The Tigers have been searching for a No. 2 starter behind Tarik Skubal all year. Jack Flaherty has been inconsistent all season and had three starts in August where he allowed five or more runs. Casey Mize has a 7.20 ERA over his past eight starts. Chris Paddack? No. Maybe it’s 41-year-old vet Charlie Morton, who has a 4.61 ERA in his five starts with Detroit, as he has mixed in three excellent outings with two bad ones (although he fanned 10 in one of the bad ones). No matter what, there are going to be a lot of bullpen games for the Tigers in the playoffs when Skubal isn’t pitching, especially since the pen was much better in August after struggling in June and July (and adding some depth at the deadline).
5. American League West
Standings: Houston Astros up 2 games on Seattle Mariners
What’s at stake: The Mariners haven’t won a division title since … hold on here, scrolling through the years on Baseball-Reference.com … that’s right, the 116-win season in 2001. The Mariners made some weird pact with the baseball gods that season, which for some reason didn’t include them making the World Series after their historic regular season but did include them not making the postseason again until 2022. That’s right: They remain the only franchise never to appear in the Fall Classic. Winning the division would increase their odds just a bit and allow them to set their rotation for the ALDS.
Series to watch: Mariners at Astros (Sept. 19-21). The season series is tied 5-5, so the winner of this series gets that crucial tiebreaker edge. Of note: The Mariners have lost five consecutive road series and are 1-6-1 (they split a four-game series) in their past eight. The Astros have managed to keep their grip on first place despite going 12-13 in July and 13-15 in August. They’ve won every full-season AL West title going back to 2017.
Astros player to watch: Yordan Alvarez returned last week after being out since early May with a hand injury. He homered in his second game back and didn’t strike out in his first five games. The Astros have even started him twice in left field, allowing them to give Jose Altuve a DH day. Bottom line: If Alvarez is producing, a below-average offense suddenly looks at least like an average — or better-than-average — offense. With Alvarez, Altuve and Carlos Correa, it’s 2019 or 2021 all over again, two seasons that ended with the Astros playing in the World Series.
Mariners player to watch: How much does Cal Raleigh have left in the tank? He’s sitting on 50 home runs but also hit .194 in July and .173 in August. He’s still doing damage with the long ball and has had 17 home runs and 36 RBIs over the two months, but he’s not carrying the offense as he did in the first half.
6. American League Wild Card
Standings: Mariners hold third wild-card spot and are up 2.5 games on Kansas City Royals, 3 games on Texas Rangers and 4 games on Cleveland Guardians
What’s at stake: By no means are the Mariners out of the AL West race against Houston, but they also haven’t played well enough to pull away in the wild-card fight, even after everyone declared them a sure-thing playoff team following the acquisitions of Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor at the deadline. But given Seattle’s recent history of just missing the playoffs — two wins short in 2021, one short in 2023 and 2024 — Mariners fans are understandably nervous about blowing it, especially with the Royals and the Rangers refusing to go away.
Series to watch: Mariners at Royals (Sept. 16-18); Royals at Guardians (Sept. 8-10); Rangers at Guardians (Sept. 26-28). The Royals finished one game ahead of the Mariners for a wild-card spot last season, so this looks like the key series. The Mariners have one three-game series in Houston starting Sept. 19. If they can survive this current road trip — they just went 1-2 against Cleveland and now head to Tampa and Atlanta — that series looms large as well.
Royals player to watch: Is it too late to toss Bobby Witt Jr. into the Judge/Raleigh MVP debate? He’s making a late run with his outstanding all-around game and just had his best month of the season. With Vinnie Pasquantino mashing home runs and some trade acquisitions chipping in, Kansas City is peaking at the right time. The Royals have played well for two months now and have a pretty soft schedule for the final month.
Rangers player to watch: The Rangers looked out of it, and they’re going to be without Nathan Eovaldi for the rest of the season — and likely Marcus Semien as well — and Corey Seager for some period of time following an appendectomy. But they just won three series in a row. Without Eovaldi, Jack Leiter has to continue to pitch well: He has a 2.88 ERA over his past 11 starts and just tossed back-to-back excellent games.
Guardians player to watch: Cleveland is barely hanging in there, taking two of three against the Mariners as Kyle Manzardo hit big home runs in wins Friday and Saturday. He’s hitting .273/.362/.545 since July 12, giving Cleveland a much-needed power source other than Jose Ramirez.
7. National League East and NL Wild Card
Standings: Phillies up 6 games on Mets in division; Mets up 4 games on Cincinnati Reds in wild card
What’s at stake: The Mets temporarily made the division race interesting again after sweeping Philadelphia early last week but then lost three of four at home to the Marlins. That’s unacceptable if you want to win the division. The Reds continue to falter, so the Mets’ wild-card spot looks reasonably safe, though they are just .500 since May 1.
Series to watch: Mets at Phillies (Sept. 8-11); Mets at Reds (Friday-Sunday). With next week’s four-game series, the NL East remains in play even though it would take an epic New York comeback combined with a Phillies collapse for the Mets to win the division. They’ve already clinched the season series over the Phillies with a 7-2 advantage. Meanwhile, the Reds have a chance to put pressure on the Mets with a three-game series in Cincinnati before New York’s trip to Philadelphia.
Mets player to watch: Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong. The Mets’ rotation has scuffled for a while, so suddenly the season rests heavily on their two prized rookie starters. McLean won his first three starts, allowing just two runs in 20⅓ innings. Tong, who led minor league starters in ERA and strikeouts, beat the Marlins in his debut Friday, striking out six in five innings with no walks while showcasing the changeup that allowed him to dominate the minors.
Reds player to watch: What’s happening with Elly De La Cruz‘s power? He hasn’t homered since July 31 and has just one in his past 58 games.
8. National League Central
Standings: Brewers up 6.5 games on Chicago Cubs
What’s at stake: This is another David vs. Goliath matchup. Milwaukee, of course, is Goliath. The Cubs won the NL Central in the COVID-shortened season of 2020 but haven’t taken a full-season division title since 2017. Given the Brewers’ lead with no signs of faltering, the odds are slim that Chicago can chase them down.
Series to watch: The two teams are done for their season series, and the Cubs took it 7-6, so at least they own the tiebreaker.
Brewers player to watch: Closer Trevor Megill landed on the IL a few days ago with a flexor strain in his elbow after blowing three saves since mid-August, so Abner Uribe takes over. If the Cubs have a chance to catch the Brewers, it might be because the Milwaukee pen, which has been worked hard, burns out in September, especially with the Brewers in the midst of playing 19 games in 18 days.
Cubs player to watch: Kyle Tucker slumped as he played through a hairline fracture in his right hand for two months. He finally broke out with three home runs in two games and has hit over .400 his past nine games. The Cubs’ offense was horrid in August — Pete Crow-Armstrong also struggled — and they’ll need Tucker and the rest of the lineup to rebound in September.
9. American League Central
Standings: Tigers up 9.5 games on Royals
What’s at stake: This one is all but over — though, it’s not impossible for the Royals. The Mets blew a seven-game lead in 2007 with 17 games to play. The 1995 Angels entered September with a 7.5-game lead and lost the division in a tiebreaker game. The 2009 Tigers were up seven games on Sept. 6 and blew it. The 2011 Braves had an 8.5-game lead in the wild-card race at the start of September and missed the playoffs. And during that same season, the Red Sox were leading the Yankees in the AL East and nine games up on the Rays — who would catch them on the final day of the season to win the wild card. So … you never know.
Series to watch: The Tigers and Royals are done playing each other, with Detroit winning the season series 9-4.
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