Philadelphia eagles Are favorite for winning Super Bowl LX – But just barely, with a group of teams close to the champs that ruled in terms of the ability to hoist the Lombardy Trophy. This is according to ESPN Football power index (FPI) – Our football rating and launch model – which launched on Wednesday 2025 season,

Eagles has a 12% chance to win a super bowl according to the model, the lowest chance that the Preciden favorite had to win all this because the model started production of Presiden projections in 2015.

In Presiden, FPI’s overall forecast ratings are mainly based on winning from the betting market with the schedule of each team – as well as a team’s initial and backup quarters and a special team ratings with factors such as the difference between a different and a special team rating. We use these ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, the results of which make our estimates.

The rating develops because we learn more about each team based on crime, defense and performance of special teams – accounting for the opponent – with quarterback performance and changes. The predictions of the game are also affected by the home-field profit and comfort difference. Let’s dive into our 2025 forecasts and our biggest takeaways.

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top team , Super Bowl , NFC North
NFC West , AFC East , AFC North
Who is the last? , Number 1 pick

Eagles are at the top of NFL’s elite group

The 2025 elite class of NFL has a clear top level: eagles, chiefs, revenue, lions and bills. These teams are most distinguished by one point in the FPI rating, which means that none of them will be in favor of more than each other on one neutral area. But there is a rigorous, 1.8-point drop-off between number 5-ranked bills and number 6-ranked commanders.

See NFL FPI rating for 2025 season first! pic.twitter.com/k6s2fg40x7

– Seth Walder (@Sethwalder) 27 May, 2025

Common theme between top five teams? Aggressive power. This is true, “Defense Vince Championship” Clich is not reflected here. The crime from the game to the game and the season to the season is more stable, so teams with the best previous quarterbacks and aggressive production are more likely to repeat that success. This is important because FPI has to look forward, not back. It is no coincidence that the top five teams also have five best. Crimes According to FPI, in a different order.

But it’s not All Crime-defined champion Eagles overall leads are Oh-Bubbula as they also have the best rescue. With lineback Zack Boon Back to anchor middle and ascending young talents to deal with defensive Jalen karter And cornerback Quineen Mitchell And Cooper DejenPhili’s defense separated it.

All five teams in the top tier have at least 8% chance to win super bowl, and 50% chance that Super Bowl winners will be one of those five teams. Another team does not have more than 5% chance to win all this.

Can we repeat eagles-chiefs in super bowl?

Two of the past Three Super Bowl has been between Canasus City and Philadelphia. Will it be three out of four? 4.2% of the Super Bowl LIX repeat is the largest in any combination of teams in our super bowl matchup projections, which makes the 3.6% probability of the revenue-eagles and bill-eagles match slightly better. The top combinations are listed below and the nearest number is rounded.

When the top 10 looks the most likely super bowl combinations, many different NFC teams appear in the list. Eagles and Lions show the most, but commanders, Ram and 49ers appeared in one of the most possible combinations each. The AFC side of the matchup was dominated by three teams – heads, bills and revenue.

Who is a favorite in the loaded NFC North?

This is not a great surprise, but every team in NFC North ranks in the top half of the FPI rating. Detroit proceeds to number 4, followed by packers (number 8), vikings (number 15) and beer (number 16).

If there is a curveball, it is that Minnesota ranks only 15th after leaving 14–3 in 2024. But the Vikings trusted their defense-which was third in the EPA-the last season in the last season, ranking an average 15th. And even though Bryan Floors remain as defensive coordinator, it is difficult to repeat defensive success.

Also, second year quarterback JJ McCarthi After one is unknown Remember their crook season With a torn maniscus in your right knee. While it can be more reverse than last year’s starter, Sam darnoldThe negative aspect of McCarti is almost certainly low. Therefore, FPI gives Minnesota only 19% to win the division and 43% chance to reach the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the bears moved in the opposite direction. After finishing 24th in Chicago total efficiency (adjusted EPA adjusted for garbage time last season), FPI sees it as the minimum-average team entering 2025. The reasons for optimism are clear. Bear brought New coach Ben Johnson and couple Important talent For their aggressive line, and quarterbacks Kaleb Williams Now NFL is a season of experience – even if it is experience Was unstable,

So, who comes forward? Lions led the route with 41% shot to win the division, with packers at 25%. But they all have a chance, as even bears are 15%.

Can 49ers bounce back and win NFC West?

FPI has narrowed Ram to Ram as the best team in NFC West. But favorite for winning division? He will be (Very Narrowly) should be 49ers, with 36% shot shot at 34% of Ram.

Why discrepancy? Schedule strength. No team enters 2025 An easy slate Compared to 49 residents, who not only encounter NFC South and AFC South like the rest of their division, but also the final form in the division in 2024 to veterans, browns and beers. First place schedule,

This is enough to give San Francisco an edge in estimates on Los Angeles. It also indicates the confidence of FPI in 49 residents of disappointing disappointingly disappointingly disappointing after 6–11 expeditions. A large part of that belief is betting market that believes that there were 49ers Obstructed by injuries To key players Last season – including comprehensive receiver Brandon ayukRunning back Christian Macfrey And aggressive lineman Trent Williams – And they should be dangerous Be healthy,

Can any of other AFC East teams challenge the bill?

They Be able toBut no individual team is expected to do this especially. Buffalo is the only AFC East team with a positive FPI rating and will be considered more preferred than four-points on each other three on a neutral region. And bills have 65% chance of winning their division – NFL had the biggest difference of any team.

Of course, it leaves more than 1 -in -3 opportunity that someone else will win a pre -AFC. This is mainly due to the uncertainty of football – the FPI can eliminate bills or reduce someone else, or one of other teams may destroy the division title despite not having good as a holistic buffelo.

But that variance will always be. Meanwhile, the bill is again in a good position as it gets to win their division.

Will Bangles return to the playoffs?

Perhaps Cincinnati’s 2024 campaign despite quarterbacks ended disappointing in regular session Joe Buro Ranking in third CuburyThe best performance of his career. But Defense grabbed Bangles back, as he finished 23rd in EPA, allowed per game and struggled specifically against the run, defending the 30th -ranked plays in the EPA.

But the lack of consistency with good rescue is also with weak units. Cincinnati replaced Lu Anarumo is offsen, which enhances the uncertainty of FPI on that side of the defensive coordinator Lu Anarumo with Al Golden. Eventually, the model estimates Bangles to protect an average, which takes them to number 7 in the overall ranking.

Rewens AFC North Champion is most likely at 54%so far, and Bangles is at the next 29%. But Cincinnati has a 60% chance of reaching the playoffs. It forms the fourth-most chewing playoff team in AFC after remembering Postsen in the last two sessions.

Who ranks the final?

FPI’s 32nd ranked team is not Titans, Brown or Giants. These are saints who find themselves at the bottom of the ranking Sudden retirement Veteran Quarterback Derek Car. His retirement Forces New Orleans to trust Either the crooks in the second round Tyler Shaf Or second year player Spencer Ratler In quarterbacks, stopping another step. All the crooks quarterbacks are seen as a negative in FPI, but a second-recorder like Shaf-who guesses the models-will be considered a little bad. Cameron WardWhich Tennessy chose with the number 1 pick.

The good news for the monk is that FPI does not think much about NFC South. Only bucccaneers have a positive FPI rating (they are ranked 14th). Falcon and Panthers are ranked 26th and 28th respectively. Partly because the division is so weak, all four NFC South teams rank in the lower six in the strength of the schedule, which increases each of their winning estimates. As a result, the monk has only the fourth best opportunity on the number 1 pick in the 2026 draft, despite the overall FPI rankings at his last place.

Cleveland on the clock?

Brown is the most potential team that ends the number 1 pick to end the season 2026 NFL DraftWith 13% shot. Most of these are due to a quarterback room Joe Fleko, Kenny picket, Dillon gabriel And Shedur sanders And from a difficult tolerance Schedule,

The veterans have been rated slightly above Brown in FPI and the second biggest chance to earn the number 1 pick at 12%due to the league facing. Most difficult scheduleTitans, Saints and Jets follow with 11%, 10% and 10% possibilities respectively.