The silly season for the MLB draft is in full swing. College conference tournaments and many state high school tournaments have concluded, so the season is over for many key players and attention has shifted to private workouts or playoff games. Rumors are starting to swirl about who will go where, so it’s time for my initial full first-round projection.

As mentioned in my updated 150 prospects rankings and mini-mock two weeks ago, the top of this class is down a little from recent years, but that means the stars will be found later in the draft and the top of the draft will be even more unpredictable.

This week’s NCAA tournament regionals will be key for some of the players listed below, but most of those still playing have done enough that a few games won’t matter much. The MLB draft combine (June 21-25) will be huge for prospects projected to go in Rounds 3-5, while the real fireworks for first-round implications will come either in private workouts or in the meetings teams are having to sort through all of the information they’ve collected in the past year on this class.

Here is who your favorite team is targeting at the top of this year’s draft, which takes place July 13-14.

Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (Oklahoma)

Top 150 rank: 3

This one is still wide open and my choice here is more a reflection of “I don’t quite have enough info to change it from Holliday” than “I’m confident it’s going to be Holliday.” Eli Willits and Seth Hernandez are the leading prep options while the college options (lefties Liam Doyle, Kade Anderson and Jamie Arnold) seem less likely.

Bonus demands will certainly be a factor, which are influenced by potential landing spots. Holliday’s hot spots are picks Nos. 1, 4 and 5. Willits’ are No. 1, possibly No. 2, then Nos. 5-No. 8. Hernandez’s are No. 1, possibly No. 2, No. 3 and then a gap until maybe No. 9. If you’re confused, you’re now caught up to where the industry is.

Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee

Top 150 rank: 6

I’m not ruling out a high school player going here as a possibility (as referenced above), but I’m also not taking it that seriously. The Angels’ history is to take quick-moving college players early and promote them quickly through their system, then overpay some high school players later.

Doyle had one of the most incredible regular seasons in years, but did get hit around in the SEC tournament. You could justify Kade Anderson or Jamie Arnold as the top college prospect here, but Doyle fits their interests better. Aiva Arquette is mentioned, and I think he’s in their mix, but I’d assume a pitcher is where the Angels land.

Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU

Top 150 rank: 7

It’s starting to sound like this pick will be a pitcher. Hernandez is a real option but comes from a risky player demographic as a high schooler. Anderson is finishing strong, and Arnold is posting solid K/BB numbers but getting hit around, so I’ll lean to Anderson in a tight finish.

Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State

Top 150 rank: 8

If Holliday doesn’t get here, I’m told the options considered will include the remaining college left-handers (Arnold in this case), Kyson Witherspoon and Arquette. Witherspoon probably goes a bit after this, so he seems like the least likely unless there’s an underslot deal.

Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (Oklahoma)

Top 150 rank: 2

In this scenario, I think this pick will come down to Willits and Arnold, with JoJo Parker and Billy Carlson among the viable choices on the periphery.

In the past, St. Louis has leaned heavily into reliable college starters, but Willits is quite similar to St. Louis 2024 first-rounder JJ Wetherholt.

Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State

Top 150 rank: 1

The Pirates have been tied to Arquette (not available in this scenario), any of the three college lefties (just Arnold in this scenario), and whichever of the prep shortstops get here (Carlson and Parker in this scenario). I think Arnold’s solid chance to be the best pitcher in this class wins out.

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Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (California)

Top 150 rank: 5

Carlson is heavily in the mix for a number of picks starting around No. 5 and should go pretty soon after that. Like Arnold, he could be the one from the best of his player demographic to slip but could also easily be the best of the group. We’re getting into the back of the top tier of talent, so teams picking here will be reactive and take who gets to them from the top group.

Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma

Top 150 rank: 10

I don’t think the Blue Jays would take Seth Hernandez, but I do think they’re on most of the other players in the consensus top group, so Witherspoon is the one who makes sense in this scenario; any of the previous four picks in this mock would be Toronto’s pick if they were the one to fall, too.

Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (California)

Top 150 rank: 4

This is a best-case scenario for Cincinnati as the Reds get their guy here after Hernandez loses some coin flips up top. I think this would be quite unlucky for Hernandez and there might be a team lying in the weeds between No. 3 and No. 9 that would take him that hasn’t tipped its hand yet.

JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (Mississippi)

Top 150 rank: 9

Parker has multiple potential landing spots in the top 10. He might be the best hitter in the draft, it’s just that his other tools aren’t as good as his competition.

For some teams, the top tier is 10 players (I basically agree, though I might include one or two more) so the White Sox’s pick could be quite simple, but odds are their board doesn’t just have all 10 names in a similar order.

Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona

Top 150 rank: 27

The A’s are in a tough spot, as you can surmise from the theme developing that the top tier of talent is now running out. That also means prices will come into play starting around here as a number of players grade out similarly; that means mocks get much harder because agents and teams don’t know anyone’s price yet. The A’s have been tied to Summerhill all spring and this is about where he should land anyway; he’ll be ranked higher when I update my list.

Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (Alabama)

Top 150 rank: 11

The Rangers will take any player demographic but tend to lean toward tools/upside at premium picks. Hall is one of the youngest players in the draft and is a plus-plus runner with the feel to pull/lift the ball in games.

Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas

Top 150 rank: 14

I’ve heard both Wake Forest SS Marek Houston and Aloy at this spot. Both are college shortstops but otherwise pretty different players. Aloy has contact issues, isn’t a great runner but is a good defender, and Houston makes a lot of contact with limited power and is a great defender. Aloy has a chance to be a starting big league shortstop with plus power and that upside is rare, especially from the college ranks.

Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian HS (North Carolina)

Top 150 rank: 18

Hammond had a great summer and was getting Austin Riley comps for his two-way prowess (many teams preferred him as a pitcher over the summer), then showed up notably stronger this spring, looking like a dead ringer for Josh Donaldson, headlined by plus-plus raw power, though with a more power-focused offensive approach.

Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (California)

Top 150 rank: 13

Fien is somewhat polarizing as he has medium tools but had a huge summer performance while his lesser spring performance has soured some teams. He was knocking on the door of the top 10 before the spring and shouldn’t get out of the first 20 or so picks despite scouts being a bit confused by their spring looks.

Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M

Top 150 rank: 9

Speaking of a confusing spring, LaViolette also has scouts unsure what to make of him. His swing is a bit mechanical and stiff, but he has massive tools and has performed pretty well all things considered — though he has been streaky. There’s some thinking that he should loosen up his swing, maybe like Cody Bellinger, because he has 30-homer power and is viable in center field at 6-foot-6.

He’s a rare talent with solid college performance, but the worry about his swing and the contact issues he might have at higher levels is creating uncertainty about his draft position. He could sneak into the top 10 but more likely goes in the later teens. The Twins have taken players like this and had some success, such as Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner.

Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas

Top 150 rank: 21

Wood is a hot name because of his huge stuff, but he has started only 10 games in college. Some scouts think that if he can make a number of starts for Arkansas this postseason, he could have a rise like Cade Horton, who went No. 7 in 2022 out of Oklahoma and is now in the big leagues for the Cubs. This projection is a little speculative, but I don’t think Wood would get out of the 20s if the draft were held today. He is a more refined version of another Arkansas pitcher the Cubs took in the second round in 2023, Jaxon Wiggins.

Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (Oregon)

Top 150 rank: 16

You’re going to see De Brun in this spot in a lot of mock drafts because he’s pretty similar to Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Slade Caldwell, all prep position players who are short and quick center fielders — and all taken by the D-backs. He belongs in this juncture of the draft anyway and Arizona still seems quite interested in this type of player.

Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (Washington)

Top 150 rank: 19

This is the area where you’ll see Neyens, De Brun’s northwest prep running mate, the most in projections. He belongs here, but the next few picks are teams that tend to lean into Neyens’ skill set: massive raw power, solid athleticism and infield fit. Baltimore has taken a number of players like this over the years and Neyens has an intriguing upside (think Joey Gallo, both the good and bad versions) for this juncture of the draft.

Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (Georgia)

Top 150 rank: 20

Pierce has a lot of interest from the late teens into the 20s and could go anywhere in that range, (or maybe get overpaid later) because there are a ton of prep position players at this juncture of the draft and one or two of them have to slide as college talents invariably are moved up while prep players get big bonuses to wait a bit longer. Pierce is a standout athlete and defender with great makeup and contact rates but limited present power.

Tate Southisene, SS, Basic HS (Nevada)

Top 150 rank: 22

Tate’s brother Ty got $1 million from the Cubs in the fourth round last year and the Cubs are tied to Tate this spring, though Houston is as well. Southisene is a bit unusual as a prep shortstop with standout power and patience in a smaller frame, though not quite as fast or young as Steele Hall, another player with that general skill set who went nine picks earlier in this projection.

Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest

Top 150 rank: 15

There was a lot of anticipation when Houston showed scouts a new and improved swing last fall that caused some to mention Dansby Swanson as a comp. But it was followed by a bit of a letdown when his power numbers didn’t increase very much this spring. He’s still a plus runner and defender with solid contact rates, but more like 10-15 homer potential. He has a good bit of interest in the teens, so this is more of a floor than his hot spot.

Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn

Top 150 rank: 26

Irish has a lot of momentum after finishing second in the SEC in OPS in conference games after a slow start. There are landing spots for him all over the first round, including the top half of the round, so this is near the latter end of his range. As usual, the Royals are being tied to a number of prep pitchers so I’d assume they would line up a few in their next picks after taking Irish here in this scenario.

Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (Texas)

Top 150 rank: 17

Cunningham is another player with lots of interest in the teens who loses out a bit in this scenario, though Detroit has an extra pick at No. 34 and the pool space to get a better player to this pick.

Cunningham has arguably the best hit tool in the draft and will play the infield, but doesn’t have much power right now, might be more of a second baseman and being old for the class makes him a no-go for some model-oriented teams. He’s also among the most likely big leaguers in this deep prep class, so this is a great value.

Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (Oregon)

Top 150 rank: 33

It’s generally good business to predict a prep left-hander to the Padres with Kash Mayfield and Boston Bateman taken as their first two picks last year, and Robby Snelling and Ryan Weathers as first-rounders in past years.

Schoolcraft also fits around this spot in the draft, with some chance to go inside of the top 20 but more likely being a slot-or-above option in the 20s and early 30s. He’s 6-foot-8 with mid-90s velo and a plus changeup, though his breaking ball quality is inconsistent.

Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (Indiana)

Top 150 rank: 40

The Phillies have had some success with being more open to prep right-handers in the first round than the average team (Andrew Painter, Mick Abel), though they haven’t done it of late. This is the juncture in the draft where the next tier of prep arms behind Seth Hernandez (Schoolcraft, Cam Appenzeller, Aaron Watson, Landon Harmon) will go flying off the board and the Phillies seem to be most interested in Fisher of this group.

Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

Top 150 rank: 28

Bremner looked like a potential top-10 pick entering the spring, then didn’t have the season many were hoping for, but he still has a starter look with mid-90s velocity, and a knockout changeup. The Guardians are good at the last stage of pitcher development and Bremner has fallen too far at this point.

Prospect promotion incentive picks

28. Kansas City Royals: Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (Florida)

Compensation picks

29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest
30. Baltimore Orioles: Sean Gamble, 2B, IMG Academy (Florida)
31. Baltimore Orioles: Mason Neville, CF, Oregon
32. Milwaukee Brewers: Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee

Competitive balance picks

33. Boston Red Sox: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (Georgia)
34. Detroit Tigers: Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU
35. Seattle Mariners: Nick Becker, SS, Don Bosco HS (New Jersey)
36. Minnesota Twins: Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
37. Tampa Bay Rays: Jaden Fauske, OF, Nazareth Academy HS (Illinois)

These three teams had their first-round picks moved down 10 slots after exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax. We’ll include full writeups for them so all 30 teams have a projected pick.

Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee

Top 150 rank: 37

Phillips is electrifying, sitting in the upper-90s with plus stuff from a low-arm slot but some teams worry his arm action will limit him to relief. The Mets haven’t been scared to take this sort of risk in the past and Phillips might also land in the 20s, so this would be a nice value.

Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee

Top 150 rank: 53

Fischer is sneaking up the board along the same lines as Ike Irish and Ethan Conrad, as pure hitters who are probably big leaguers of consequence. Fischer has the least defensive value of the group as a likely first baseman who has some shot to play third base, but he also might go higher than this as the demand for SEC-proven hitters is always high.

Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson

Top 150 rank: 34

Cannarella hasn’t looked quite the same as he did last spring and scouts seem to think he won’t go in the top 20-30 picks. I think this drop is too far for his talent and would be another draft coup for the Dodgers.